Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 03/1200 UTC THRU JUN 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING
THE TN VALLEY CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING..WHILE ALSO OPENING
IT UP LATER IN THE PERIOD.  A CONTINUED SOUTH TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AHEAD OF THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
KEEP DEEP MOISTURE/HIGH PWS IN PLACE FROM THE DELMARVA DOWN INTO
GA.  THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FOCUSING QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDAY..AND THE HIGH
MOISTURE THAT WILL PERSIST..SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM SOUTHERN VA THRU MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO GA.  MODEL QPFS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT..AND AGAIN
GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL QPF BLEND FOR THE DAY 1 PROG..WITH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCHES EXPECTED THRU THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN GA.


...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...

WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF FORECAST TO RELOAD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD..IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THRU MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
TROF..WITH CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROF.  WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW..IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL STATES DURING
THE PERIOD..WITH A STILL ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPACTING
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF NE AND SD TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE
MIDWEST..WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS..SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT..ON THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET..AND IN WHAT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  IN GENERAL..THE LATEST MODEL QPFS
ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK ON THIS IDEA..WITH THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES
BEING LATITUDE DIFFERENCES.  STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE SOUTHERN
CONVECTIVE AXES AS PER THE ARW..NMMB..NSSL WRF AND 12Z ECMWF HIRES
SOLUTIONS..WITH THE GFS AND GEM REGIONAL SEEMING TO BE A LITTLE
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THEIR HEAVIER RAINS.  AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY THRU SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHERN KS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA AND NORTHWESTERN MO..WITH
ISOLATEF HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES...

THE RELOADING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS
PERIOD WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED THRU MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES..UNDER
THE PERSISTENT COOLING ALOFT.  THERE WAS A GENERAL SIGNAL AMONGST
THE MODEL QPFS OF SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS PARTS OF NORTHERN
WY INTO MT..SUPPORTED BY MORE DEFINED S/WV ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU THIS REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT..AND STUCK WITH THIS IDEA.  SOME LOCALLY GREATER
THAN 0.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WY AND
MT..OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHTER RAINS LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER OF
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST THIS PERIOD.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 535217 536210 537200 536195 537191 537186 536181 536174
      534165 530161 527158 518151 516145 514141 510137 509131
      508127 505121 504117 504110 502101 497094 484081 474061
      464043 454032 447026 442021 440017 433994 428985 425981
      425978 427976 436976 445974 451969 455962 463958 472958
      478964 481965 481968 479974 477983 477996 479001 482002
      485000 489995 494985 498973 501961 501946 501939 502932
      503920 505906 506898 507892 508887 508881 507875 504870
      502867 500866 500861 500857 498852 495843 493838 490837
      482834 477835 473840 462857 457866 454870 451873 439882
      424894 416900 411905 405913 400921 392936 384955 382967
      381976 382982 387007 390016 391028 391041 390046 392052
      394057 397060 404065 422074 423077 422083 421088 418090
      416089 407091 400098 397102 397108 399114 402116 408118
      412117 420114 427117 430118 434117 438116 442119 444129
      439137 437141 433144 428143 424139 421129 420126 416123
      408121 402120 402125 403130 406135 407138 404138 398138
      392146 391152 392157 393160 395161 400162 409160 412164
      414169 415174 415180 410187 407199 408204 412205 417206
      417213 417217 414221 411225 408227 400226 398228 400231
      406232 412232 416229 419228 421229 425227 427224 431222
      436221 439218 440214 436211 432212 428208 423206 421204
      423200 424195 425188 426181 430175 431164 430158 430155
      432154 441152 444155 446159 448163 446166 440174 435186
      439190 444191 452188 460185 462183 459177 456170 459165
      462166 469170 477173 480183 481188 482196 478207 472213
      469215 465215 458219 451226 446228 441225 437227 432229
      429235 428240 429244 434246 442243 450242 453242 458244
      465243 475245 484249 489251 491256 497264 500274
 0.01 500274 504282 507281 507276 504266 499260 497250 494247
      493243 487228 490230 492234 495241 506256 510264 512273
      513277 515279 517276 519274 520269 518258 519247 521235
      523230 525228 535217
 0.01 491129 490127 488124 487122 485123 484125 483128 484130
      486131 488133 489132 489131 491129
 0.01 399763 397745 396735 394734 390734 387735 384734 378731
      373730 366732 345745 333751 326758 322763 318767 314772
      312774 308775 297781 289782 286783 284781 283777 280776
      275776 261780 255782 248784 243787 239789 234793 232798
      233807 236814 243823 247821 252823 254825 258825 263827
      267831 273833 277836 283838 288841 291845 294852 295859
      299863 302864 304862 308858 311853 322856 333859 334857
      339857 345860 351861 357861 365854 373847 384839 392833
      396830 401823 400816 396814 389815 386812 385807 385800
      387794 394787 397782 398775 398768 399763
 0.25 524206 525201 524197 523190 520178 518172 516168 511165
      508159 506155 502157 498159 495164 493170 493176 493180
      495183 499186 504189 506195 509206 512211 515212 517212
      521209 524206
 0.25 452952 468939 483923 487914 487906 483895 479889 478881
      474880 464885 454894 445896 426905 417910 412917 401936
      398940 395945 390954 386962 385971 385979 388989 392000
      396010 399024 401051 408058 413059 418057 420054 421047
      420039 419034 418018 417012 415006 412996 411988 412980
      416971 420967 425965 435964 441962 445959 452952
 0.25 478109 478104 477099 476090 473087 469087 466087 462089
      458094 455096 453100 454106 455110 460116 464119 470117
      476114 478109
 0.25 458062 458056 456054 449055 441054 436052 433054 429061
      430065 433068 435071 436075 437084 441085 445084 450080
      453071 456064 458062
 0.25 459910 453912 447916 441919 435923 430928 426935 426937
      430939 436936 443933 448928 451926 452923 456915 459910
 0.25 429106 428105 427105 426105 426106 428106 429106
 0.25 380766 380757 378751 377748 373744 366743 360745 354749
      342755 332765 324775 318787 314799 312805 309812 302823
      300828 299833 301837 305841 312842 325836 333836 339838
      349845 356843 360839 362833 362829 360825 362818 366812
      372801 378789 380784 380776 380766
 0.25 277805 277801 274799 270798 264795 257796 252800 248804
      247807 247810 251812 255811 260811 267812 271812 275809
      275807 277805
 0.50 472108 473106 473103 472101 472099 471098 470097 469095
      467096 465097 463099 462100 460101 460104 460106 461107
      463109 464110 466111 467112 469111 471110 472108
 0.50 455934 446940 438948 438952 441953 447949 457939 455934
 0.50 445072 445070 445067 444065 443064 443065 442066 441067
      441069 440072 440074 441076 441079 443078 443077 444074
      445073 445072
 0.50 423954 422950 419947 416943 415938 412934 408936 402943
      396949 394952 393959 390961 388966 388972 389979 395998
      399006 404014 412030 414030 415027 415019 414015 412010
      409000 408989 407982 409975 412966 418961 421958 423954
 0.50 412050 412047 411046 410046 409047 409049 409050 411050
      412050
 0.50 372759 370754 366749 363749 358751 348756 341763 335771
      330779 325788 323794 321799 319810 314818 312824 311831
      313833 316833 320832 338820 342818 347819 352818 357815
      362807 368797 370793 369788 370783 369775 372759
 0.50 351833 351832 351831 349830 349831 348832 347833 348835
      348836 350837 351835 351833 351833
 0.50 269806 270804 268803 267802 265801 263801 261801 259802
      258803 259804 260805 261806 262807 263807 265807 267807
      269806 269806
 1.00 411956 412950 411945 408944 405946 400951 398953 397959
      396968 395974 396977 398988 400995 402994 402989 403977
      405968 408961 411956
 1.00 355766 354765 354764 352762 350762 348762 347763 345765
      345767 345768 345770 346772 346774 347774 347776 348776
      350774 350773 351772 352771 353769 353768 354767 355766
 1.00 355801 355793 354788 351787 344788 339791 334796 331800
      329806 330812 337810 342808 347806 352803 355801

$$




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