Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241831
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...

...WESTERN U.S...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAD SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO MT/ID AND
EASTERN WA/OR. A SURFACE FRONT TRAILED BEHIND...JUST PUSHING PAST
THE CASCADES AT 18Z THURSDAY. NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY AS MID LEVELS COOL
THE SURFACE WARMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION REGIME...CHARACTERIZED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO COASTAL
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE
DAY 1 PERIOD. A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND PASSING TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRAS AND LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOTH
STRATIFORM AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN NV/ID/UT. MODEL QPFS
SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THESE TYPES OF EVENTS IN THE
WEST OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE PERFORMS WELL SPATIALLY...BUT CAN BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WPC QPF ADJUSTED THE
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT TOWARD THE HEAVIER NAM AND WRF-ARW IN SPOTS.


...CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...

A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD.
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVOID THE GULF COAST STATES AS
THE BULK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSES FARTHER NORTH. AMOUNTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL ALSO BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. IN BETWEEN...MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON TWO EMBEDDED
SWATHS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO ONE
INCH...AREALLY AVERAGED. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GREATER THAN AN INCH
WILL BE MORE COMMON IN THE SOUTHERN SWATH...FROM ARKANSAS TO
TENNESSEE..WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED. NORTH OF THIS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING HALF TO ONE INCH
AMOUNTS IN A ZONE FROM MISSOURI TO NORTHERN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT VORT MAX. IN EACH CASE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AT THE
SAME TIME THAT BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND TENNESSEE. THE ODDS OF ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
STALLING TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING APPEAR VERY LOW.

ON FRIDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EASTWARD
FROM GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. LOCATIONS IN
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE WHEN STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS SPILL OVER THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR ALL OF
THIS WPC QPF WAS DERIVED MAINLY FROM THE 00Z SSEO_MEAN AND 12Z
WRF-ARW IN THE CONVECTIVE REGIONS...AND...ACROSS THE NORTH...FROM
OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE WHICH IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NAM/SREF.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 531189 532183 530175 530170 528164 524144 521133 518127
      515123 510123 508126 505131 502134 501139 496143 492142
      489138 486133 483132 477134 473137 471135 472132 475128
      476119 477108 477101 475096 474093 469090 464089 460089
      455091 453093 445094 440093 435095 428092 426093 425098
      426104 421112 409124 397136 390142 386151 384156 383164
      384168 384175 385178 390181 398187 399192 396195 393195
      390193 382188 377184 371182 366181 362183 360186 362190
      368197 373204 385216 391223 392225 390226 386227 381229
      381234 388240 396247 405251 415254 423256 433254 442252
      455244 463241 466237 462234 470218 474210 473208 470207
      467210 460215 452216 448214 449209 450205 453201 454196
      457187 463181 467168 471166 475162 476168 479172 483174
      487177 491187 491190 490193 488195 485200 486203 490203
      494202 496199 498193 501188 504184 512180 516181 519184
      525190 530191 531189
 0.01 504242 505234 505229 504223 502219 496210 489209 485209
      481211 475216 474220 479222 482225 485229 491235 497243
      499246 502246 503244 504242
 0.01 495257 496252 496249 493242 489237 484234 481233 480230
      477228 475230 470233 469238 469243 472247 479250 483255
      488259 491261 495257
 0.01 511957 511941 510929 509923 509915 509904 508889 506875
      504864 501855 500850 497844 493836 489830 484826 478821
      471813 467806 463797 459788 454782 441777 435775 430775
      426774 419770 416766 415760 414755 412748 410744 406743
      403742 399743 392747 386752 374755 367753 360751 356750
      350751 344756 342763 340770 337778 335791 335795 336800
      338805 338810 340822 340831 339842 337849 334859 330867
      323883 320892 318900 317903 317909 316919 314928 314933
      317937 326937 332934 341930 348926 354922 360920 372919
      377919 381921 388925 394927 406926 413925 427919 435917
      445916 454919 457921 460925 465932 470938 476944 480949
      492962 494965 499966 502968 505967 509963 511957
 0.01 486679 485670 483664 480660 477656 474652 470650 466647
      461648 457647 453651 452655 453664 454669 458674 460679
      464683 467685 472688 476689 481689 484686 486679 486679
 0.01 489152 488147 487144 485142 482141 478141 477142 473141
      473145 475146 476149 476154 476159 476161 478159 480157
      482158 485158 487154 489152
 0.01 454083 455081 454081 453078 451075 450075 448073 446072
      445072 444072 444075 446075 448077 448078 449078 451080
      451081 452083 453083 454083 454083
 0.01 408117 409115 409112 409110 410108 410105 409103 407102
      407103 406105 405106 405107 403108 402108 401109 401111
      403112 404114 404116 406117 408117 408117
 0.01 377217 376212 371209 368207 365203 363202 360203 356206
      355210 358213 361216 364219 368222 373224 375218 377217
 0.01 309954 308950 305949 302950 299953 296960 294968 291975
      288981 286987 289986 292983 296979 300973 303966 307959
      309954
 0.01 280817 282820 286820 290820 292820 291817 288816 284816
      283816 281817 280817
 0.01 271023 270019 266015 260006 256998 252995 248992 243991
      237990 232992 230997 230003 232008 236012 240014 250018
      254020 259023 263025 267025 271023
 0.01 265804 266797 264791 260788 254788 250790 246794 239801
      237803 236801 233797 229796 229803 233814 234819 237822
      243821 248819 255813 261812 264809 265804
 0.25 516156 515154 515153 515150 515148 515145 515144 514142
      513142 512141 511141 510142 508143 507146 507148 508150
      508151 509153 510154 510155 512155 514156 515156 516156
 0.25 499237 500232 499227 496222 493218 490214 486215 484220
      487223 489223 492225 494230 496235 499237 499237
 0.25 492253 492250 492248 491247 490245 490244 488242 486243
      486244 486246 486248 487251 488252 488253 490254 492253
 0.25 480241 480240 480239 479236 478234 476233 474234 473236
      473239 474239 475241 476242 478243 480242 480241
 0.25 501934 500907 499897 498890 499884 498875 497868 494858
      490852 485847 482847 478848 471851 467852 464854 458857
      449859 442862 437861 438857 442849 444845 447841 449832
      452826 453817 453810 451806 448802 445799 439796 431795
      427794 423793 417790 405785 401781 400777 402774 401768
      399765 395764 387767 382768 376767 373766 368766 361769
      356773 352777 351781 355790 357792 358797 362804 359813
      359818 361821 364827 366830 366835 361835 356836 349839
      347847 345858 342867 338874 333888 330895 328905 329911
      333914 336916 341916 350913 356910 370905 378903 383904
      385906 389914 393917 398917 407914 413910 423900 449888
      458885 462885 465886 471902 479919 483928 487934 491937
      494939 498939 500937 501934
 0.25 466152 466146 463143 458142 455145 449150 446150 444147
      438139 436139 434145 431156 430159 428161 425162 419180
      421190 421193 424194 427191 430187 431184 432176 434172
      436165 440164 444167 446172 447177 445183 444186 447188
      449188 455184 458179 459172 460165 461159 466152
 0.25 444220 443219 442217 440219 441222 442222 443222 444220
 0.25 445201 445199 445197 443197 442198 443199 443201 444202
      445201
 0.25 438228 438226 439224 438222 436222 435223 434224 434225
      432227 432229 433230 435231 435230 436230 438228
 0.25 448116 450112 448109 444104 439102 435104 431109 428115
      427123 425126 427127 431123 434118 438114 443117 446118
      448116
 0.25 424244 424241 423238 419237 414236 411236 406234 402231
      400230 398231 396236 397239 401242 405243 410242 413242
      418243 424244 424244
 0.25 422200 421199 420197 420196 418195 418196 417199 418200
      419200 421200 422200
 0.25 412219 412205 411203 408204 404205 399204 394201 390199
      386195 377189 372186 369185 366187 367189 370193 376202
      384209 392215 402221 408220 412219
 0.25 411145 411141 409139 407140 405142 403145 401148 400150
      399155 402157 404154 406153 408151 410148 411145
 0.25 398846 396842 393842 384842 380842 375843 371849 370851
      374853 378858 380866 383869 386870 389870 391867 393864
      394860 396851 398846
 0.25 260803 260799 258797 255796 251797 250798 247800 245803
      244805 243807 243811 244813 247813 249812 251810 253808
      256805 258804 260803
 0.25 252006 251004 249002 247001 246002 245003 245004 245005
      246006 247007 249008 251008 252006
 0.50 495927 494924 492922 492921 490920 489920 488922 489924
      489925 489927 490929 491930 492931 494929 495927
 0.50 492891 492885 492878 492872 491868 488864 486863 479866
      475872 474882 475895 478902 482908 485909 487909 489905
      491901 492891
 0.50 458155 458153 457152 453154 451155 449158 449160 449163
      450167 450170 451175 452177 454176 455172 455167 457162
      458157 458155
 0.50 440154 440151 440150 439149 439146 438146 437145 436146
      437147 437148 436150 436153 437155 439155 440154
 0.50 443108 442107 442106 441105 439104 437104 437105 435107
      435109 437110 438110 439110 440110 442110 443108
 0.50 442829 439825 436824 430817 424809 421804 418801 414798
      411796 406795 402792 395787 393788 391792 390796 387800
      384802 380801 377796 374797 371800 371803 376805 391815
      391822 393826 403825 410828 419832 425836 430839 433837
      438832 442829
 0.50 431169 432166 431165 429165 429166 427168 427170 429171
      429170 431169 431169
 0.50 426862 426852 422847 414848 408851 404856 401863 397876
      392892 390898 388901 389906 391912 396915 402913 406909
      411905 414898 420885 424869 426862
 0.50 405217 406214 405212 402211 396205 391201 384196 378192
      373188 369187 371190 374195 378201 385206 391211 397215
      404218 405217
 0.50 392780 390773 387772 380773 375772 369771 364775 364782
      367789 371792 373794 377793 383791 389788 391782 392780
 0.50 374893 372887 369882 367876 367871 366867 359859 358852
      356848 354847 349857 347864 346872 345877 347880 347893
      348899 351904 356906 362904 367902 373898 374893
 0.50 342891 342888 338888 336891 335893 334895 333898 332902
      333906 336904 338902 339899 340896 341893 342891
 0.50 253804 252803 250803 249804 248805 247806 248808 249808
      250807 251806 252805 253804
 1.00 384200 382197 381196 379196 379197 380199 382200 384200
      384200
 1.00 362896 363889 361885 357885 355883 356879 355877 352879
      351883 351890 352897 355899 356901 358901 361898 362896

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