Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 050812
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

THE 0000 UTC NAM---0000 UTC GFS AND THE ECMWF FROM BOTH 1200 UTC
MAR 4 AND 0000 UTC MAR 5 ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
DISTRIBUTIONS DAY 1 FROM THE FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IS LEADING TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
 WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DAY 1 IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS THAT
WILL BE ENHANCING UVVS TO THE NORTH OF THE LATEST ARCTIC FRONT
PRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HEAVIEST SNOWS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOSTON METRO AREA---KEEPING
RECORD SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS ON HOLD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HERE.
SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE HEAVY MID ATLANTIC SNOW AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAKENING LARGE
SCALE UVVS EARLY DAY 1 ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING ARCTIC FRONT.  STILL AN ICING THREAT EARLY DAY 1 FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.   AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10- 25" RANGE
DEPICTED.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

DAYS 2/3...

THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ONGOING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST-MID ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.  IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS...RESULTING IN A TWO-DAY PERIOD IN WHICH LITTLE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...RETURNING GULF MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.

ORAVEC/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 538213 541199 541194 539191 531178 523164 514152 510151
      507151 502155 500159 499165 502171 507178 510186 517199
      522216 527223 532223 537218 538213
 0.01 522264 523258 523254 519249 515242 513236 509230 505231
      503234 503238 502249 503253 502257 497253 495251 492252
      489257 489262 490266 491274 495288 498295 502294 512285
      516279 519271 522264
 0.01 231977 237021 245018 250016 255019 261025 270031 275032
      279030 283026 283019 281008 279002 279994 283982 288974
      292971 296968 302962 306959 310954 320951 325948 328944
      336938 341934 344930 348922 353912 357903 369883 374874
      380864 385855 390847 393842 395837 398825 403798 408772
      408766 410761 413749 419726 425701 426686 427673 427660
      428651 419649 417647 414648 410652 381685 353713 348716
      345721 339731 333739 330744 328749 319768 310786 305797
      299806 288823 277838 271845 265855 259864 255874 247894
      243903 240912 238918 235923 235929 233934 233941 231945
      230957
 0.25 533214 534206 534199 533194 531189 529184 526180 523179
      524184 525190 525198 526204 528209 529213 530216 533214
 0.25 516270 517267 517266 517265 516262 514259 513258 511257
      510260 511262 511265 512268 513271 514272 515272 516270
      516270
 0.25 504278 505276 504273 504272 503270 503269 501269 500268
      499269 499271 499274 500277 501278 503278 504278
 0.25 417688 417683 414680 408680 402682 396685 388694 382702
      374712 367721 358729 351737 344747 341752 337757 335761
      333767 332770 334773 338770 344767 348771 347776 344783
      339793 337806 337813 339819 346830 347836 346842 344849
      342854 336866 331878 327888 330889 334885 348866 355857
      364852 369847 373843 379832 383823 388811 393797 397785
      401773 404760 410733 413719 415705 417688
 0.25 284887 282883 280883 276886 273889 270892 267896 267900
      269902 269905 275905 278902 280900 282896 283889 284887
 0.25 267952 266951 265951 264952 263952 261954 260956 259956
      258958 258960 259961 261960 262960 263959 264958 265957
      265956 266954 266952 267952
 0.25 239969 237969 236971 237973 238971 239970 239969
 0.50 410704 410698 408694 405692 401693 391703 373724 363735
      359740 356746 359749 362749 365751 365757 364765 362772
      357779 353784 350789 348796 348815 349823 351826 354828
      362824 366820 379813 383807 386801 390795 392789 397772
      397764 399756 403740 406724 409712 410704

24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 538207 537188 535182 530181 528174 524167 519163 515157
      512157 510159 512165 511168 508167 506166 505171 507178
      510186 513192 515200 516207 519215 521223 522227 525229
      528223 529217 532216 536213 538207
 0.01 536075 535069 533062 528050 523038 520033 517029 507001
      494975 492970 489963 489959 491954 491952 494950 502955
      512960 517959 520957 521953 522941 520934 515918 509908
      502899 500892 498888 492877 490875 491871 493869 496869
      497870 499868 501865 501860 499856 497853 492850 490846
      491841 492833 498822 501819 504813 506808 505803 504800
      501795 498791 494788 489787 484786 476787 474782 475779
      476772 476760 475754 476750 476742 478734 480720 481712
      485707 490697 492684 491673 489663 486659 485658 482659
      477665 473670 470676 472679 473685 472692 470698 462706
      454714 449718 445722 442726 445731 446735 443737 437741
      432747 432754 434765 434770 432773 423779 420785 419790
      419794 421794 426793 430788 431786 435785 438785 440789
      441793 441798 437801 430804 427805 428809 428812 432814
      436816 441820 445822 448823 450825 451833 450841 446846
      444848 441849 432849 425850 423852 424858 428862 433862
      436864 438868 441873 447887 452897 454904 453911 450924
      452940 458952 464961 467969 465973 467977 471980 475984
      478991 479998 483010 486015 491018 494023 497028 503041
      506047 509057 512069 516075 521079 525082 530083 534080
      536075
 0.01 454764 453763 451763 450763 448764 447766 445768 445769
      444771 445773 447772 449772 450770 452769 453767 454767
      454764
 0.01 377712 372701 369698 365700 361703 359705 355703 353699
      349696 344692 338694 333698 331704 326729 323739 320743
      317746 302760 283773 279778 276782 272787 265789 259791
      254793 250794 246798 244803 242808 241813 242819 245820
      246818 250813 253811 253815 254822 256823 259822 264823
      270823 274820 273815 275810 279808 284809 289810 292815
      288823 271869 268880 267894 265904 260913 254924 248933
      241942 238948 237953 237968 243974 244980 243987 242002
      240007 238014 232022 229027 227035 227041 230047 235048
      239045 242043 246038 251029 254026 258023 256992 254987
      254982 256980 261972 268964 273955 276946 276930 277914
      278902 280894 282888 285881 287875 291852 294847 298849
      301849 304846 316827 323816 328805 333796 338787 344780
      350771 360749 368741 372735 374729 374723 376719 377712
 0.25 361729 360724 358724 355725 348731 337744 332750 327757
      317772 309786 303793 303797 307798 310797 313797 319791
      330776 339764 349749 354743 359734 361729
 0.25 278796 277795 276797 277797 278796

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 538205 536191 534186 531182 529180 529176 530168 530163
      530159 528158 521149 517140 512129 509125 506124 505127
      505132 506137 506142 504140 499138 491131 487128 485128
      484130 486136 488140 492144 496146 499148 501150 502155
      505160 504166 505173 505179 507186 510191 515198 519203
      521209 522212 525212 530213 534212 537207 538205
 0.01 545971 546963 544958 544952 541946 539941 537939 531933
      526928 521921 515908 512898 508890 507886 504882 497877
      491873 484868 481858 480854 482852 481847 480842 478839
      471832 469830 466827 464822 465817 466813 464809 463805
      464800 468796 472790 475783 478774 481766 482756 477746
      477742 475740 472737 471731 472726 476717 480708 484699
      486688 487677 489669 490659 489649 482652 477658 470663
      465664 462667 459670 455675 454684 457693 456698 452702
      445706 442708 439713 435722 431725 427726 423727 424734
      425737 423741 418747 416754 416763 415773 410780 397790
      390796 390799 393801 403800 405806 405811 407815 411819
      411824 413830 417830 422831 428836 437851 438859 440863
      442863 445861 450860 452861 453864 454871 457881 458889
      458893 459896 463905 466899 471904 468910 464918 465923
      465931 466937 467940 471942 475942 478945 480946 478949
      471951 460946 454942 451931 450925 448922 443916 437911
      432909 427909 424919 423926 422940 423947 424953 424959
      426963 429973 433980 438980 438970 440964 442964 443967
      450984 447996 446000 446007 449015 454022 459031 459037
      460042 459057 459064 460069 463069 465065 467061 469066
      471077 470080 469087 470095 473101 478107 481108 484104
      486099 486092 486088 484083 479074 476066 470046 465024
      463020 463015 462012 463009 466007 472004 475000 475996
      477988 479983 481980 486980 488982 492983 492988 492995
      493999 497008 503016 508021 511022 513024 512027 510030
      510035 513048 514053 516058 519062 522063 525066 529066
      530062 531054 530043 531037 534037 536035 540036 543033
      543027 540018 537011 532002 531997 528993 526989 523986
      520985 519982 521981 530981 533979 536979 540976 544974
      545971
 0.01 350088 348081 344079 339079 336078 332077 330079 330083
      333089 336096 337104 340112 342114 343109 342100 344090
      348090 350088
 0.01 337958 336956 336952 332945 325938 328924 332911 333903
      330900 320903 315906 311911 306922 304924 300926 294927
      284924 279925 274929 268939 265945 263951 257961 241976
      235980 234983 236985 241987 248986 253990 256994 255999
      254001 249006 241014 239018 240024 241026 245026 251025
      259025 263029 271031 271035 263042 262055 263061 264068
      265077 269075 273071 275067 277059 281055 286043 289036
      292029 295026 300023 303021 306015 308008 308998 308988
      307982 308974 310969 316960 318956 320955 325958 332962
      337958
 0.01 297788 296779 294776 291776 287779 283785 277787 272784
      266786 260790 255794 252800 250805 249812 252817 257821
      264822 269818 273814 276812 280811 286810 293806 296804
      297802 296792 297788
 0.25 298973 299968 297965 294962 286961 281964 277968 276970
      277973 280978 279987 279992 284989 288985 292983 295977
      298973
 0.25 276799 276797 275796 274795 273794 271794 269795 268795
      266796 264798 265800 266802 267802 268803 270802 272801
      274801 276800 276799

$$





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