Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 201713
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1213 PM EST Friday, February 20, 2015

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
This weekend, a major winter storm will bring snow to the northern half of
the region and a wintry mix changing to all rain in the southern Ohio
Valley. The rain atop a significant snowpack could trigger some flooding
across parts of the southern half of the basin. This is a complicated and
dynamic weather scenario and river levels will be highly dependent on how
much snow melts, where the heaviest rain falls, and just how much run-off
is produced.  Weather models have been trending colder and the latest river
forecasts have been trimmed back a little from previous runs.

Behind the low pressure system, drier and colder air will once again be the
rule for much of next week.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
While forecasts have been lowered slightly, the risk still exists for
significant flooding across parts of the southern Ohio Valley this weekend.
Interested parties should keep a close eye for rapidly changing conditions
and forecasts.  The flood threat will ease next week as frigid conditions
return to the Ohio Valley.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Some light snow fell across northern/eastern OH, western PA, western NY,
and northern WV.  Liquid equivalent amounts were under 0.10".

...72-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Amounts are lowest across the north with between 0.25" to 1.00" of liquid
equivalent expected.  Most of this precipitation will fall as snow or a
wintry mix.  Amounts of 1" to 3" are expected across the southern half of
the region. Precipitation will fall as snow or wintry mix initially, turning
over to mostly rain for much of the event as warmer air lifts northward.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
None.

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

$$
jm




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