Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS71 KTIR 181716
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
116 PM EDT Thursday, May 18, 2017

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
High pressure is weakening today as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Some scattered showers and storms have already developed across
the region. The front will enter the basin overnight tonight before
stalling out. Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend as the front
lingers.  A more potent low pressure system and cold front will sweep across
Ohio Valley Sat night and Sunday yielding more organized and widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
A handful of rivers in the western basin remain above flood stage, although
all are steadily falling. The potential for new flooding is currently low,
but the threat will increase each day through the weekend with several
rounds of convection in the forecast. The best chances for flooding will be
in the western basin.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Scattered showers in the western and central Ohio Valley produced light
amounts generally under 0.25".  The majority of the region was dry.

...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the region.
Heaviest amounts are expected in the lower Ohio Valley with between 0.50"
to 1.00" although locally heavier amounts are possible in thunderstorms.
Elsewhere, totals ranging from a few hundredths up to around 0.50" are
forecast.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Points along the following river basins were in flood Thursday morning:
 River Basin     Forecast Point   Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
Ohio River       J T Myers Dam         37         37.7    Falling
Ohio River       Shawneetown           33         36.3    Falling
Wabash River     Montezuma             14         14.2    Falling
Wabash River     Terre Haute           14         14.3    Falling
Wabash River     Riverton              15         19.3    Falling
Wabash River     Vincennes             16         18.3    Falling
Wabash River     Mount Carmel          19         24.8    Falling
Wabash River     New Harmony           15         19.4    Falling
Little Wabash Ri Carmi                 27         33.2    Falling

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.
$$
jm




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