000
SXUS43 KTOP 182341
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AND TIMING IS LOW DUE TO SEVERAL
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IDEA OF SOME ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINK VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEN
STORM STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. TAFS ARE A BEST GUESS AT TIMING WITH ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY
AS THINGS UNFOLD.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          832 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  150/13 MPH
                                     8 PM  150/13 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 605 PM):        200FT  157/10 MPH
                                      400FT  145/11 MPH
                                      600FT  146/11 MPH
                                      800FT  150/12 MPH
                                     1000FT  151/14 MPH
                                     1500FT  148/18 MPH
                                     2000FT  158/21 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 122/14 MPH
                                       77FT  122/17 MPH
                                      238FT  123/19 MPH
                                      522FT  124/20 MPH
                                      943FT  125/20 MPH
                                     1491FT  126/21 MPH
                                     2151FT  127/21 MPH
                                     2890FT  141/23 MPH
                                     3709FT  174/20 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 128/14 MPH
                                       74FT  128/18 MPH
                                      238FT  129/20 MPH
                                      523FT  130/21 MPH
                                      942FT  130/22 MPH
                                     1491FT  131/22 MPH
                                     2156FT  132/23 MPH
                                     2898FT  132/23 MPH
                                     3710FT  153/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 132/15 MPH
                                       74FT  134/20 MPH
                                      239FT  135/24 MPH
                                      520FT  136/27 MPH
                                      943FT  130/22 MPH
                                     1491FT  131/22 MPH
                                     2156FT  132/23 MPH
                                     2898FT  132/23 MPH
                                     3710FT  153/22 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3377 FT
                                     8 PM  3253 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        606 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  150/12 MPH
                    8 AM  160/13 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$