241
FXUS64 KEPZ 241725
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1125 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Strong winds and blowing dust are likely on Thursday as a low
pressure system passes by. The strongest winds will occur during
the afternoon across portions of south central New Mexico. Breezy
to windy conditions will continue through Saturday before quiet
weather returns Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Pacific low pressure system currently off the coast of southern
California will drive our spring-like weather pattern over the
next few days. Quiet and persistent conditions again today with
lowland highs in the upper 80s and southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
during the afternoon. Only difference from yesterday will be the
increase in high cloud coverage as a band of subtropical moisture
moves in from baja. Skies will be mostly overcast this afternoon,
which may stagnate temperatures a degree or two.

Upper trough progresses over the southern Rockies on Thursday,
leading to windy conditions area wide. 500 mb jet streak around 80
knots will cross directly over El Paso mid-afternoon Thursday,
with deep boundary layer mixing to 600 mb. At the surface, lee
cyclogenesis producing a 987mb low in eastern Colorado will
extend a strong surface trough southward across New Mexico and far
west Texas. Trough axis passage is timed well with peak mixing,
especially right up the US-54 corridor from El Paso up to
Tucumcari.

Model guidance has increased winds slightly in the past 48 hours.
West-southwest winds with sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with
peak gusts around 50 mph will be most common across the New Mexico
and Texas lowlands. Mountain ridges and east slopes will see
slightly higher gusts. Thus, Wind Advisories have been issued for
much of the area excluding far western New Mexico (near the
Arizona state line where winds will likely be weaker). High Wind
Warnings are out for the Sacramento Mtns and San Andres east slope
zones, including Cloudcroft, Mayhill, and WSMR. These are the
locations most likely to see gusts exceed 60 mph, sometime midday
Thursday.

Blowing dust and extreme fire danger are also considerations for
Thursday afternoon. Very dry conditions will be conducive of high
fire danger and dust sources in northern Chihuahua are likely to
respond by the noon time hour. Reductions in visibility will be
possible all afternoon, especially along the International Border
and just east of White Sands.

Friday looks to be a lull in the winds, remaining breezy but
likely not needing any headlines. Secondary lobe within the
prevailing trough pattern across the Western US will reach us on
Saturday, leading to more windy conditions and possible blowing
dust during the daytime hours. Winds expected to finally settle
down Sunday into next week as the polar jet streak shifts
northward.

No major weather concerns early next week. Continued dry
conditions with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees
in El Paso again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of
the dryline again midweek, but right now any storm chances look to
be confined to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions expected with SCT-BKN200/250. Winds will pick up to
10 to 15 knots this afternoon with a few gusts to 25 knots,
generally from 230-260. Thursday is expected to be a windy day
with wind beginning to increase toward the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Elevated conditions today with warm temperatures and dry air area
wide. Min RH 8-15%. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph leading to Very
Good smoke ventilation this afternoon.

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected on Thursday,
perhaps the most severe of this season so far. Similar low
humidity conditions will combine with much stronger west-southwest
winds of 30 to 40 mph across much of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. ERCs showing dry and primed fuel conditions across the
lowlands, with fuel moisture closer to normal over the high
terrain. Red Flag conditions beginning around the noon time hour
and continuing to sunset on Thursday, with rapid fire behavior
possible in regions of high grassland, brush, or forest coverage.

Critical fire conditions are expected to linger into Friday and
Saturday afternoons, with subsequent Red Flags being issued for
portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas in the
coming forecast packages. Thursday certainly looks to be the most
severe, with Friday/Saturday being more borderline with winds
reaching critical thresholds. Winds subside Sunday into next week,
with continued dry weather. No precipitation expected the rest of
the month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  65  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  56  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               88  59  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  58  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               63  45  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    84  55  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              76  49  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   86  55  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  52  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  64  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  53  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  56  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               80  58  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  60  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  60  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           86  63  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            84  55  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    86  56  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  60  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  56  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  76  50  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                74  50  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  46  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  76  48  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                82  53  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                84  53  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             76  45  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   79  46  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    81  50  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               77  48  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  50  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  53  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  55  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  53  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  50  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411-
     414-417-426-428-429.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416-
     427.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown