384
FXUS64 KMAF 050539
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Severe weather today is the main weather concern in the short
term. A cold front currently located near the I-20 corridor is
moving south with cool northeasterly winds moving in behind.
Convergence along the front will be a source for thunderstorm
initiation and these storms will move northeast into the cooler
air behind the front. This will cause these storms to become
elevated and greatly diminish the tornado threat though very large
and damaging hail will still be possible and a significant threat.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southeastern New
Mexico and the Permian Basin. South of the front, warm and moist
air will destabilize due to an approaching disturbance and daytime
heating and strong directional shear will provide a favorable
environment for severe and tornadic thunderstorms. A Tornado Watch
is in effect for the Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend. Storms from
both watch areas are expected to merge into a line later this
evening changing the severe threat to a straight line wind and
large hail threat as it exits the Permian Basin to the east.
Cool air settling in behind the front will make for a beautiful
Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s for most
areas. The only 90s will be along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Quiet but warm weather returns to the forecast for the start of
the new week. As a strong upper-low begins to open and move into
the northern Great Plains, taking on a negative tilt, this acts to
push the dryline to the east as zonal flow develops. This zonal
flow is expected to be maintained through the first half of the
week through at least Wednesday. What this translate to is
temperatures mainly in the 90s, with 80s in the higher elevations
and 100s in the Big Bend each day. Dry conditions with a fair bit
of sunshine for all. This begins to change as a conglomeration of
shortwaves congeals into a broad trough extending from the Great
Lakes to the central Rockies. The developing pattern with
shortwaves rounding its base aide in pushing a cold front through
the region by late week. Slightly cooler temperatures begin to
stream into the northern part of the area by Thursday with
portions of the Permian Basin remaining more in the 80s. The cold
front is then expected to clear the region by Friday ushering in
mostly 80s and even some 70s across the area. Beyond this point,
the forecast becomes chaotic and messy. At this time, an upper low
appears to develop near the Great Salt Lake. This puts our region
back under southwest flow aloft with lee troughing allowing
moisture to finally slide back west. Whether this will coincide
with any disturbances or bring enough moisture for appreciable
rainfall remains to be seen. Other than this hope by next weekend
we are dry overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR and IFR ceilings expanding across the region, and will
impact all terminals through at least the late morning.
Improvement to VFR conditions will be gradual, from west to east,
with VFR returning at CNM around 16Z, and at FST/MAF closer to
21Z-22Z. VFR conditions are then expected through the evening,
with MVFR ceilings expected to return for most terminals just
beyond the end of the forecast period. Winds will generally remain
light from the NE/E through the morning, then shifting to the SE
during the afternoon, becoming elevated/gusty once again between
22Z-01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidities
over the weekend reducing the fire weather threat. Warmer
temperatures and stronger winds increase the fire threat in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos Monday and
Tuesday. Possible rainfall Saturday will determine fine fuel
moisture levels so a better idea for the potential for critical
fire conditions will be known for the next forecast. Elevated to
near critical conditions continue through Thursday before some
improvement is seen Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  65  90  60 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 88  58  88  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   82  67  94  65 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            85  63  94  63 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           81  58  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    80  59  87  57 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    85  51  88  52 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     79  65  91  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  66  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     86  63  93  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...84