938
FXUS65 KMSO 110937
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
337 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain over western Montana and
north central Idaho through Sunday, bringing warm and dry
conditions to the region. In fact, many valley locations may
eclipse the 80 degree mark by Sunday, producing the warmest
temperatures of the year to date.

Forecast models continue to show a weak disturbance moving through
northwest Montana later this evening into Sunday morning. Most
likely this will result mainly in cloud cover. However, a few
showers will be possible, especially along the Continental Divide
near Glacier National Park.

Breezy conditions are anticipated by Monday as the high pressure
system weakens slightly. Gusts to 25 mph look probable across much
of the region, with an 80 to 90 percent chance of occurrence.

Rising temperatures through the early part of this week will
increase snow melt in the mountains, allowing for a rise in river
levels. A shift from below average to above average stream flows
is anticipated. Keep in mind that water is running cold and fast
and take precautions for cold water safety if you are recreating.

As the high pressure ridge flattens next week, temperatures will
cool and the chance for showers will increase. Forecast models are
still struggling with the forecast by mid next week, with around
30 percent of solutions leaning towards a colder/wet trough,
another 30 percent showing the ridge of high pressure rebuilding,
and the other 40 percent leaning towards flatter westerly flow
with near normal temperatures and breezy winds.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will bring fair weather to the Northern
Rockies airspace today and through most of the weekend. Expect
mostly clear skies with light and variable winds today and
tonight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$