National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Versions: 1 2
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AXUS75 KPSR 161247
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AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-171200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST THU MAY 16 2013

...DROUGHT EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

WITH ONLY SPOTTY MINOR RAINFALL EVENTS OVER THE PAST TWO
MONTHS...WATER YEAR TOTAL PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST DEFICITS ARE REPRESENTED BY LESS THAN 50% OF
NORMAL...WHILE MOST OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED LESS THAN 75% OF
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE OCTOBER 1ST. WE ARE NOW CENTERED IN THE
DRY SPRING SEASON WHERE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SCARCE...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED AND EXPANDED ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE REACHING THE HEART OF THE MONSOON SEASON.

A BULLSEYE OF EXTREME DROUGHT IS STILL SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST
MARICOPA COUNTY. SEVERE DROUGHT STILL ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF MARICOPA COUNTY...AS WELL AS WESTERN PINAL COUNTY. SEVERE DROUGHT
HAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF YUMA COUNTY...AS WELL AS EASTERN LA
PAZ COUNTY. THE WESTERN HALF OF LA PAZ COUNTY REMAINS IN THE
ABNORMALLY DRY THRESHOLD...AS DOES EASTERN MARICOPA AND GILA
COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT HAS ALSO EXPANDED THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CURRENTLY...ALMOST 70% OF THE STATE OF ARIZONA IS AT
SEVERE LEVELS...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT JUMP FROM THE 44% REPORTED
LAST MONTH AND NOW ECLIPSES THE 67% FROM ONE YEAR AGO. EXTREME
DROUGHT HAS ALSO EXPANDED TO COVER NEARLY 19% OF THE STATE.

NEUTRAL EL NINO/LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE A
SUCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE AUTUMN SEASON. TYPICALLY...EL NINO/LA NINA
HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DRY SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER SEASON. THERE REMAINS LITTLE CLIMATE
SIGNAL THAT WOULD SUGGEST ANY PREFERENCE TOWARDS A DRIER OR WETTER
MONSOON SEASON.



SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

WITH OVER TWO YEARS OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...IMPACTS HAVE
INCLUDED INCREASED WATER HAULING NECESSARY FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS...DISTRESSED VEGETATION AND LOSS OF FORAGE ACREAGE.
LIVESTOCK ON REGIONAL RANCHES HAVE SUFFERED THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RANGE LAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST MONTH WITH 61% OF THE AREA
RATED POOR OR VERY POOR VERSUS JUST 28% IN APRIL.

AFTER PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE WINTER SEASON HELPED SPUR
VEGETATIVE GROWTH...ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING
NATIVE SMALL PLANTS AND GRASSES TO ENTER DORMANCY. LARGER PLANTS AND
TREES ARE NOW BECOMING DRY WITH THE SEASON...AND FIRE DANGER HAS
INCREASED DURING THE PAST MONTH. SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME
FAVORABLE ON A DAILY BASIS OVER THE NEXT MONTH...WILDFIRE DANGER MAY
BECOME EVEN WORSE AND SUPPORTIVE FOR LARGER INCIDENTS.



CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE SEASONAL WATER YEAR (SINCE OCT 1ST) HAS BEEN DRIER THAN AVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT CLOSER AVERAGE FOR WESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR WAS PROMISING...WITH PRIMARILY NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE TYPICAL DRY SPRING SEASON AND
RAINFALL EVENTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AS WELL AS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. BELOW IS A
LISTING OF STATIONS AND PRECIPITATION RECORDED SINCE OCTOBER 1 2012
AND JANUARY 1 2013. ALSO INCLUDED ARE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SEASONAL HISTORICAL RANKINGS
(PLEASE NOTE SOME STATIONS HAVE A MORE LIMITED HISTORY WITH RANKING
NUMBERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT).

                   SINCE   SINCE    SINCE     PERCENT     RANK
                   OCT 1   JAN 1    OCT 1    OF NORMAL    DRIEST
                   2012    2013     NORMAL
BOUSE AZ           3.40    1.57     3.69        92%       41ST
GILA BEND AZ       1.36    1.24     4.41        31%       MSG
MARICOPA AZ        4.31    3.20     5.10        85%       29TH
PHX SKY HARBOR AZ  3.53    2.61     5.27        67%       45TH
YUMA AZ            1.74    1.11     2.22        78%       71ST
BLYTHE CA          1.94    0.81     2.59        75%       34TH
TUCSON AZ          2.95    1.74     5.34        55%       25TH
FLAGSTAFF AZ       9.36    5.23    13.07        72%       36TH



PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR JUNE AND THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF JUNE-JULY-AUGUST ARE GIVEN BELOW VALID FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE NUMBERS ARE DERIVED
FROM OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND ARE
ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THEIR WEBSITE LISTED BELOW. THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK CORRESPONDS TO THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THE ENTIRE
THREE MONTH PERIOD...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR THE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
MONTH OF JUNE...AS WELL AS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE 3-MONTH PERIOD OF JUN-JUL-AUG. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE...AS WELL AS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF JUN-JUL-AUG HAVE
AN EQUAL CHANCE OF FALLING IN THE ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL
CATEGORY.

                               TEMPERATURE         PRECIPITATION
                               PROBABILITY          PROBABILITY
                             ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW     ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW
                                  NORMAL               NORMAL
JUNE 2013....................   41 / 33 / 26        33 / 33 / 33
JUN-JUL-AUG 2013.............   42 / 33 / 25        33 / 33 / 33


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY IN THE PAST MONTH...AS
DRAW DOWNS HAVE BEEN LIMITED. RAINFALL EVENTS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT
TO ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE NEXT MONTH...AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT
ON RESERVOIR LEVELS. RESERVOIR LEVELS GOING INTO THIS WARM SEASON
ARE VERY COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF LAST YEAR. HOWEVER...THE DROP OVER
THE PAST TWO YEARS IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...WHEN COMPARED TO THE SPRING
OF 2011 WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS FILLED TO 86 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. THE
TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE PERCENT FULL OF RESERVOIRS ON THE SALT AND
VERDE RIVERS DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS.

               05/15/13     05/15/12     05/15/11
               --------     --------     --------
ROOSEVELT         55           64           94
HORSE MESA        94           92           88
MORMON FLAT       97           96           93
STEWARD MTN       94           93           90
  TOTAL SALT      62           69           93

HORSESHOE         18            0            0
BARTLETT          94           48           55
  TOTAL VERDE     66           30           34

  TOTAL SYSTEM    62           64           86


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND JUNE
21ST.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NWS FORECAST OFFICE PHOENIX...WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
  AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE  ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PHOENIX
PO BOX 52025
PHOENIX AZ 85072
602-275-0073
W-PSR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
