Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 292327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

IFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEB SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. NO OTHER TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





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