Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251057
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
557 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

At 08z...Surface high pressure was centered over western Nebraska.
The surface front extended from central Missouri across southern
Kansas into the Texas panhandle, then northwest along the Colorado
Front Range.

Most of the scattered shower or thunderstorm activity was located
near and north of the main surface front in Kansas into Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Today...the upper ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners
region. Upper flow across the Central Plains will be west-northwest.
As the surface high center drifts east into the mid Mississippi
Valley, surface low pressure will deepen from southern Wyoming into
Utah. This will bring an increased southeast to south wind across
western Nebraska today, along with higher dewpoints in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Instability will increase as MUCapes reach 1000-2000
j/kg west of highway 83. Deep layer shear will also reach 35 knots.
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate by mid afternoon from the Black
Hills region south into the western Nebraska panhandle. Have kept a
slight chance for thunderstorms in northwest Sheridan county by late
afternoon. Highs today will warm into the upper 80s to around 90s.

For tonight...Favored the ARW and NMM mesoscale models, which were
similar in timing and location of a potential cluster of storms
moving east-southeast, mainly across north central Nebraska, where
higher 30 percent chances to reside. Due to model differences, still
a slight chance for storms across the southeast panhandle and
southwest Nebraska. Lows tonight will stay on the mild side
ranging in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Have made little in the way of changes to the going forecast in the
long term forecast. The main story for Tuesday and through the end
of the week will be the continued chances for thunderstorms mainly
in the afternoon and early evening hours. A weak cold pushing south
and east of Nebraska on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will
initiate the greatest chance of thunderstorms across the area for
the week. Otherwise, the showers the rest of the week will be mainly
triggered by weak shortwaves moving across the region and enhanced
by diurnal daytime heating. With lack of a sufficient environment to
develop, these afternoon showers are expected to remain below severe
criteria. An isolated stronger thunderstorm is certainly possible
though, however, it is not expected to be a widespread severe
outbreak.

The other story for the week is the temperatures. Another day in the
lower 90s is expected for Tuesday. However, with the cold front
passage on Tuesday night, a cooler airmass will start to move in for
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will begin to drop on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s Wednesday (locations south of
I-80 could still see highs in the low 90s). Much appreciated cooler
temperatures finally arrive across the entire CWA by Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 80s for both Thursday and Friday.

For next weekend: Warmer temperatures return across central
Nebraska. Highs in the upper 80s on Saturday and low 90s on Sunday.
For now, keeping the forecast dry for the weekend, however, some
model runs are indicating another chance of showers on Saturday
evening. As an upper level ridge begins to build across the western
US and resulting surface high pressure builds across the central US
on Sunday, dry conditions should return for the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions forecast at the KLBF and KVTN terminals today and
tonight. South winds at KVTN will increase to 17015g24kt at 17z
through 00z Tuesday. There will be a chance for thunderstorms to
develop west and northwest of the terminals this evening. A better
chance exists for KVTN, and have introduced a PROB30 for 5sm tsra
from 04z-08z Tuesday. Coverage and confidence remains too low to
include in the KLBF taf.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg


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