Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 161226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A winter storm is currently impacting the region. The main
hazardous weather concerns in the short term period are freezing
precipitation and snow/snow amounts. Of which, concern is more so
the former than the latter. Snow reports have been scant to non-
existent tonight with precipitation mainly being observed as
freezing rain or freezing drizzle this evening into the small
hours. While a slight reprieve is occurring over south central NEB
presently, freezing rain/drizzle has been mainly occurring
elsewhere. Dry air hasn`t impeded precipitation as previously
thought to the far north of the CWA so a winter weather advisory
was issued for Keya Paha and Cherry counties wherein a glazing of
ice is now expected attributable to a light freezing rain/freezing
drizzle. Total ice accumulations are anticipated to be low in
these two counties (up to one tenth of an inch). Further, the
impact across Cherry county will largely be confined to the
southeast half of the county.

Precipitation type and subsequent amounts (total ice accumulation
and snow) were the main forecast challenges. Precipitation type
is expected to transition across southwest NEB into north central
NEB from freezing precipitation to a wintry mix to snow. Wherein
freezing rain is anticipated to be a threat through mid-late
morning based on BUFKIT soundings. Furthermore, WPC/SPC SREF
Winter Weather Impact graphics continue to show a fair signal for
freezing precipitation in portions of the CWA this morning. A
band of heavier precipitation is possible across central NEB
extending westward into western NEB with snow expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. However, guidance continues to
have difficult time with the location of the band along with
apparent differences in their thermal profiles, the latter making
changeover difficult to pin down. Current thinking for snow amount
does not differ greatly from the previous forecast -- highest
amounts totaling up to 3 inches across the extreme southern and
southeast portion of the local forecast area. Back edge of
precipitation is expected to begin pushing eastward into southwest
NEB by mid afternoon with precipitation coming to the end by the
early evening across the remainder of the forecast area. Other
sensible weather concerns are low with respect to winds wherein
modest breezes out of the northwest are expected late morning-

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Very mild week ahead for western and north central Nebraska.
H850mb temperatures rise into the 5C to 10C range Wednesday into
Thursday, and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s can be expected
those two days. A bit cooler for the weekend, but still should see
highs around the 40 degree mark. A series of strong Pacific storm
systems will begin moving onto the west coast starting Wednesday,
with the first crossing our area Friday into Saturday. Both the
GFS and ECMWF bring this through as a negatively tilted upper
trough, but moisture is rather limited and it does not appear that
widespread heavy precipitation will occur at this time. What
precipitation does occur will likely be a mix of rain and snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The threat for freezing precipitation, light freezing rain or
freezing drizzle, continues to be a primary concern in the near-
term. Currently much of northern KS, southwest NEB, and north
central NEB, are reporting freezing precipitation or an unknown
precipitation type. Elsewhere, snow is the predominant
precipitation type across northeast CO and extreme southern NEB
Panhandle. Area web cams show mainly icy surfaces across much of
western and north central NEB at the present time.

IFR/MVFR conditions prevail across much of western and north
central NEB, expect for in portions of northwest NEB where VFR
conditions prevail (this includes KVTN). Current thinking is the
impact to the KVTN terminal today will be less compared to
elsewhere in the local forecast area wherein IFR-MVFR conditions
will be an issue for much of today. Precipitation is expected to
eventually transition to all snow mid-late morning. This will need
to be monitored closely for a delay in changeover or if it occurs
faster than anticipated. Conditions will improve to VFR conditions
steadily mid-late afternoon from west to east. KLBF terminal is
expected to improve to VFR conditions by the end of the afternoon.


Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ005-006-094.



LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.