Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 020521
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON BAY. MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL.
OVER THE PAST HOUR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMP WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED
HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT...AS THE TEMPERATURES WERE HELD DOWN
BY CLOUDS/SHOWERS MORE THAN EXPECTED. THUS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS FOR THE EVENING AS SFC BASED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. STILL
EXPECTING SOME SCT ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...AND EXITING OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG STORMS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL ALSO BE FEED EARLY TONIGHT BY
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE JET ROTATES EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO THE UPPER 20S
C WITH SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND 30 C. MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 90S
WITH THE GFS MOS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. THIS IS
MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HAVE DECIDED TO BLEND AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 90S.
WITH THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A STRONG ENOUGH CAP TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ATOP THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHS
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES BRING PERIODS
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK ON A
STALLED H850 FRONTOGENETIC BAND FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHEAST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE NEXT WAVE IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 30-40%
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IN BOTH CASES THE MODELS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY
30KTS OR LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME ON
THURSDAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE LATER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS
BULK SHEAR AND CAPE INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DEBRIS CIRRUS LEFT OVER FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER



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