Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 300459
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Updated forecast for severe thunderstorm watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A bit of a tricky forecast going into the rest of the afternoon and
overnight. Models are very inconsistent with the timing and
placement of convection. Have opted to stick with a fairly similar
forecast to the previous forecast with the best chance of
thunderstorms across the north and western counties (mainly north of
I-80). While an isolated storm could develop south of I-80,
confidence is not high for this location and therefore, have dropped
pops below 20 percent. As we head into the overnight period, the
thinking is that the greatest precipitation location will shift from
the northern/western counties to the eastern counties (east of US-
83)as a very weak upper level wave slides over northern and eastern
Nebraska. Severe potential with these storms tonight is low, but
heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds are still possible.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s for all locations.

Current thinking is that after about 6am, the majority of the
showers will have either diminished or moved eastward. However, a
slight chance for precipitation will stick around across the eastern
CWA through Saturday as some showers try to develop out of southern
South Dakota. For the remainder of the CWA (south and west), dry
conditions and partly cloudy skies will dominate. High temperatures
for everybody will be in the mid-80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Models have been all over with waves moving through northwest flow
the last several days and while I have confidence in the general
features with the forecast the timing and onset of precipitation I
do not have good confidence in. Upper closed low over western
Canada will continue to deepen into the Pacific northwest tonight
sharpening the ridge ahead of it and allowing the ridge to the
south to build back into the northern plains. As the ridge builds
temperatures aloft will warm. Precipitation will continue over
eastern portions of the CWA Saturday evening...generally east of
highway 83. Southerly flow and cloud cover will keep the lows in
the mid to upper 60s. Dewpoints similar and with upslope flow and
clearing skies late the argument could be made for some stratus
and fog similar to this mornings. Will defer to later forecasts.
Gusty southerly flow on Sunday with temperatures rising into the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Warmer temperatures aloft will keep
atmosphere capped until wave moves across western Nebraska
through the evening. Similar scenario on Tuesday with highs in the
lower 90s and late afternoon into evening thunderstorms over the
eastern zones. Better chances Thursday as we get on the backside
of upper closed low over south central Canada and a cool front
pushes south across northern plains into western Nebraska. Highs
in the 90s wednesday and the 80s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Initial forecast problem lies with potential for development of
low stratus and fog. Latest runs of RAP/HRRR have backed off some
on potential for low clouds and there is no resprictions to vsby
indicated in LAMP guidance. However serly winds in moist
environment tends to develop cloud cover near or just after
sunrise so have backed off some in light of newer guidance but
confidence is low either way.

The second issue is development of TSRA overnight in association
with mid level disturbance and LLJ. Low level winds have not yet
developed as expected but short range models are similar in
developing a line also twd sunrise, but east of KLBF and KVTN.
Have therefore not included mention in morning hours. NAM keys in
on large scale convection twd the end of this TAF period and have
included mention at KVTN.


&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Stoppkotte


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.