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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180017 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
717 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT ONGOING CONDITIONS. DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING
AND TRACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND LARGE HAIL AT THE ONSET OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...BUT
THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE WIND AS THE CLUSTER EVOLVES
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO SLIGHT AS NO REAL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT TO HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE WARMING UP A BIT...WITH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING ONCE AGAIN
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION. WHILE SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOST OF
IT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...MOST STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE NAM
MODEL.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WILL OCCUR AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY
THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA AND
BECOME STALLED OUT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWEST. THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY CARRIED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER