Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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219
FXUS63 KLBF 261214
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
714 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Weak boundary across the sandhills this morning and will continue
to be a potential focus for showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Nothing severe with the morning activity and precip amounts should
be fairly light with bases close to 10k ft.

The bigger show looks to develop this afternoon into this evening
as an upper level low ejects onto the plains. At the surface a low
is expected to deepen across SE Colorado and western Kansas. A
warm front will position northeast of the low into s central
Nebraska, although some concern of where the position of the warm
front will be by the afternoon. The models are providing a variety
of locations for the warm front, which is understandable due to
the ongoing and recent convection adding several outflow
boundaries.

At this time the blended consensus is the front will lift to
around the southern and eastern CWA border and will be a focus for
strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. However with the residual boundaries will continue
pops across the entire CWA, although will have the highest and
severe potential wording from southwest into N central Neb. CAPE
values of around 3k j/kg and backed winds to the northeast of the
sfc low the threat will be for large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Models still agree that a closed upper low will open and move
northeast across the area Friday. At the surface an inverted
trough will extend north from surface low pressure in Kansas. It
is somewhat unclear exactly where this boundary will be located
due to Thursday night convection, but the thinking now is that it
should extend from near Broken Bow to Bassett during peak
heating. This boundary will likely be the focus for the most
concentrated convection, but at least scattered thunderstorms are
possible either side of the boundary. As far as severe, not much
expected as deep layer shear will be weak with upper low crossing
the area, but some heavy rain is possible with abundant moisture
in place and rather slow storm motion.

For the weekend, Saturday and Sunday, conditions aren`t looking
too bad. In the wake of the upper low expect some drying in the
mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, so at least some sun is
expected. Gradually warming temperatures aloft will help highs
climb into the 70s Saturday, with lower 80s Sunday. Still cannot
completely rule out at few showers or thunderstorms, but with no
real low level focus chances seem slim. Have cut back some on
pops from previous forecast.

By Memorial Day, the next upper trough of low pressure will be
developing across western Canada into Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will develop, and as surface low pressure deepens across the
western high plains gulf moisture will be pulled back into the
area with a better chance for rain.

The upper trough will move east and develop into a closed low
across southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday. This will send a
cold front through the area, with a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms. It appears that by weeks end somewhat drier
air will have filter into the area, with a lesser chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

An active 24 hours expected with several chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Southwest into central Nebraska,
including the KLBF terminal, is favored for the better coverage
through the daytime. Terminal forecasts are conservative with
broad times for thunderstorms based on model consensus. Expect
amendments as the scattered thunderstorms develop and confidence
on timing the impact to the terminals is better. Generally expect
VFR conditions except in thunderstorms when MVFR/IFR visby is
possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Changes coming to area rivers. First and likely the biggest is
the release of additional water from Lake McConaughy over the past
couple of days. This will cause the North Platte River at North
Platte to push well above moderate flooding (6.5 ft) and nearing
major flooding (7.0 ft). These high flows are expected to continue
into June, with unfortunately higher flows possible. The added
water will cause the Platte River to rise with minor flooding
expected next week at Brady.

Second is the very active weather over the next week. A chance
for showers and thunderstorms each day with some of the
thunderstorms potentially to drop 1 to 2 inches, or more across
portions of either of both basins. The greatest threat for heavy
rainfall will be over the next 36 hours over northeastern
Colorado (the South Platte River basin) as the upper level low
slowly moves across this area with slow storm movement.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Masek
HYDROLOGY...Masek



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