Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230456 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Updated to add areas of fog over north central Nebraska this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

For the rest of today, expect continued cloudy skies across much of
the forecast area. Areas south of I-80 could see a break or two in
the clouds, allowing temperatures to rise a few more degrees before
sunset. All other locations will see temperatures top out in the 60s
by early evening. One main concern for tonight is the chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Current thinking is that storms should
remain north of the South Dakota/Nebraska border as a
warm/stationary front remains just north of our area. Severe
potential will also stay north of our region,however, have accounted
for a couple stray showers across the extreme northern portion of
our CWA late tonight.

The other main concern for tonight is the development of fog across
much of the forecast area. Fog will begin across the northern
counties around midnight and slowly build south across the region,
eventually reaching the I-80 corridor between 2am-4am. Thickest and
densest fog will be located in the north, mainly along and north of
Highway 2, where visibilities could drop to 2 miles or less.
Elsewhere, visibilities should remain above 2 miles. After sunrise,
fog will slowly burn off starting first in the south by 10am and
eventually in the north by noon.

For the most part, dry conditions will prevail on Friday. With the
stationary/warm front to our north and a cold front to our west, we
should be dry for most of Friday. Warm air will surge into the
region, resulting in another warm day well above average. Highs will
easily reach into the upper 80s to low 90s by the afternoon. As the
cold front moves eastward and into the Nebraska panhandle Friday
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms return. Current thinking is the
majority of the storms will move into the forecast area after 6pm.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Friday night to Saturday night...long wave trough to move through
the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Good height falls
associated with the maturing system as it pulls northeast and
shortens the wave length of the upper pattern, and hence an increase
of large scale dynamics overall. Short range models similar in
developing lee side low in northeastern CO with a well developed
warm front in SD, a strongly forced dry line in eastern CO into
western KS and the southern NE Panhandle. In addition, a well
defined inverted surface trough stretching northeast from the low in
northeast CO to near the Pine Ridge region of northwest NE. Since
there is strong deep layer forcing as well as upslope flow toward
the Pine Ridge, would expect any development by Friday evening to be
maximized here and the area of moderate severe potential is good in
that respect. Further south, although the dew point gradient is
tight models are seeming to struggle developing convection there as
surface forcing is not as strong and deep layer forcing not as
strong too. Thermal ridge located to the east of the dryline but
with upper temps near seasonal maximum levels, CAPE values are not
too overly impressive. Deep layer shear is also best near best upper
forcing as expected and near the Pine Ridge area so best precip
coverage should be there as well. Convection further south
associated with the dryline by Friday eve will be more isolated to
scattered. Front pulls across NE Saturday so temps cool back closer
to seaonsal as precip threat ends from west to east.

Sunday through Thursday...significant differences among the mid to
long term model solutions in this period. All models progress the
main upper trough northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes region
and southern Canada. However...models differ in their amount of
energy kept back in the southern portion of the long wave trough.
As a result, many differences in how or if the southern stream
energy remains in the area or, like the EC and GFS, retrograde it
westward under the building upper ridge across the northern Rockies.
Canadian model keeps a significant chunk of energy and a well
developed upper low across the southern Plains, eventually drifting
northward to affect much of NE. Remaining models as well as
ensembles don`t support this and drift the remaining energy
westward. As a result confidence in the mid to long range portion of
the forecast is only average at best. Currently the forecast will be
dry since the only model with precipitation is the Canadian model
which is an outlier. However, with any cutoff systems or the
potential of one there are inherent uncertanties. So while the
Canadian model is an outlier, it is a plausible solution. However
the forecast sides with the dry solutions at this point. Temps
through the period will be average to slightly above as seasonal
averages cool slightly by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Upper low pressure lowering heights across western Nebraska
withareas of isolated thunderstorms and rainshowers. Areas of fog
somedense reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile were
between KVTNKONL and KTIF. Fog will continue through the early
morning hours onFriday. Ceilings will continue in LIFR over north
central Nebraska.Conditions will slowly improve through late
morning.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...Power



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