Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 260436
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 25.18Z NAM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
BETTER THAN 40-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION.  IN
ADDITION...THE OPERATIONAL EMC RAP INDICATES ONLY A WEAK CAP
PRESENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHEN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO A MCS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
SOLUTION VERIFIES AS PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1.75" ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...SO HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL.

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS AT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THIS
EVENING.  ONCE AGAIN...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CAP
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXIST.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEAVING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA ACROSS OUR ZONES.  WILL MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WEST OF VTN THROUGH BBW.
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM AND GFS...INCREASED POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WORK INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN ZONES.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND
MOVED POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. COVERAGE HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 92 TO 98 MONDAY...COOLING TO LOWER
80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR MVFR VISBYS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB


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