Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 201207 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NEAR TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET 250MB 120KTS+ PROVIDING SOME LIFT FOR AN
AREA OF STRATUS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AS
STRATUS LOOKS TO EXPAND. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TODAY AND WITH IT
WARMER AIR. SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOME TO WHAT WAS
ACHIEVED YESTERDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFIELD ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 ALONG THE NIOBRARA RIVER. YOU CAN SEE THESE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
TEMPERATURE FIELDS TONIGHT. UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN BOTH
GFS AND NAM. MODELS SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS AND WITH THAT THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
WOULD BE TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH WAA TONIGHT HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
THROUGH MID-MORNING...HOWEVER STRATUS ALOFT WOULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT
OR HINDER ALL TOGETHER THE DEVELOPMENT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT WARRANT FOG
WORDING IN THE FORECAST.  NOTE THAT AFTER COORDINATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION WAS PULLED FROM
THE FORECAST AS THE GREATER THREAT REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AT LEAST INITIALLY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THEN SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS TRANSITION OCCURS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THEREFORE WITH THE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY A TAP OF PACIFIC AIR ON SATURDAY.  AS A
RESULT...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
UPPER 40S WILL BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ZONES...WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
REGION OF NEBRASKA RISING WELL INTO THE 50S.  DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND WILL AID IN WARMING OUR FAR
WEST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO 60F OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE DRIVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION.  THE FRONT IS SHOWN TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.  IN
ADDITION A LIGHT QPF SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY /THE
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM
RELATIVE LIFT/.  BUFR MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
ACCUMULATING QPF HOWEVER...ONLY SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUFFICIENT SATURATION FOR PRECIPITATION.  WILL RETAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES /SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ FOR NW NEBRASKA AND
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ATTM.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A GREATER INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...THE MODELS SUGGEST A CONFLICTING
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
IMPACTING THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING.  BUT AT THAT THE MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR WILL
RESIDE.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...WHICH WOULD INDICATE HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 20S NORTH...AND
30S FOR OUR SOUTH.  THESE READINGS MAY BE AMBITIOUSLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KONL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND RIVER VALLEYS.
SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLBF TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER





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