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000
FXUS63 KLBF 142048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ RESPONDING ACROSS WESTERN KS. THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. QUITE MOIST CONDITIONS...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WARRANT INCREASING POPS LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORM MOTION WOULD
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WILL PASS THIS CONCERN ONTO THE EVENING
SHIFT.

FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR NORTHERN KS
SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ARE IN QUESTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS BORDER. IN UPSLOPE FLOW...STORM INITIATION FAVORED
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...LOW
CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. 40 PERCENT POPS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MEASUREABLE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF A
QUARTER INCH IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NCTRL TO 85
TO 88 SOUTHWEST NEAR A MET AND MAV GUIDANCE BLEND.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AS SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS IN AND AND EATERLY
UPSLOPE WIND. MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/TSTMS EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE NAM MODEL
QPFS LOOKS SUSPECT AND OVERDONE MONDAY AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED IN
FAVOR OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW MOVES INLAND INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO BY FRIDAY.
WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE...PATTERN WILL RETURN TO HIGH PLAINS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS FROM THE LOW 80S TUESDAY...THEN WARMING AS
THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 85
TO 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL THIN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
MAKING IT/S WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KONL TO KMCK LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR