Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130927
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
427 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm system the next couple days appears to be trending quicker,
milder, and drier with primarily rain or rain/snow mix and very
limited snow accumulations

- Strong north winds are still likely Thursday with gusts over 40
mph midday

- Dry conditions are expected in the wake of the system with
  fluctuating temperatures (near normal Fri and Sat, cool Sun,
  much milder early next week)

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The upper ridge that has allowed mild conditions the past few days
is being pushed to the East Coast. A large upper trough digs through
the Western US, squarely placing Nebraska in southwest flow aloft. A
closed upper low is in the process of spinning up near the Idaho
panhandle. At the surface, a trough bisects the forecast area early
this morning, roughly lining up along Hwy 83. In general, conditions
are very mild with overnight temps right around 40F and dew points
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The main surface low is getting its act
together near the southeast corner of Colorado, while a front
extends northeast to another low over Kansas City.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Today and tonight... The upper trough continues to push south and
east across the western half of the CONUS, as the closed low deepens
and approaches the Great Basin. With the closed low somewhat
retrograding, the trough takes on a more positive tilt. The core of
the H3 jet stays well south of the forecast area, and an H7 low just
begins to eject off the Colorado Rockies. The primary surface low
should reach the Wichita area by early evening and its accompanying
warm / quasi-stationary front clipping the southeast corner of
Nebraska. In all, the dynamics appear to be more fragmented or less
organized over Nebraska compared to previous model guidance suites.
The Southern Plains will feature more surface dynamics, while the
Front Range will likely take the brunt of mid-level forcing. Perhaps
the greatest mid-level (H5-7) support for western Neb occurs later
tonight as the H7 low finally reaches the CWA and the potential
increases for a short-lived deformation band of precipitation. While
dynamics seem to be less impressive overall invof the Sandhills,
moisture will still be available. East/northeast upslope flow in the
low levels will help keep dew points steady or slowly rising through
the upper 30s. NAEFS ensembles also suggest PWAT values around
90%ile of climo near the Platte River Valley. But because the best
forcing and lift do not really coincide with the available moisture,
guidance is trending down for overall precip amounts. In fact, the
latest solutions are pointing more toward a couple batches of
scattered shower type activity rather than an organized area of
precip, unless the deformation band can develop late tonight. There
is a hint of elevated instability in the eastern reaches of the CWA
this evening. Included the mention of thunder for Frontier Co, but
by far the better signal for organized or persistent thunder remains
to the east. As for p-type, the vast majority of the CWA should
remain as rain through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings
indicate a rather warm thermal profile, particularly below H7 and
near the surface where dew points remain near or above freezing.
With the exception of far northwest Neb along the Pine Ridge, the
DGZ remains at or above H6. Also, despite strong cold air advection
at H85 (24 hr temp changes of 6-7C by 00z), it takes another 12
hours or so for H85 temps to reach 0C. For max temps, stayed near
the median of the NBM envelope, which generally lines up with the
cooler numerical guidance. This seemed reasonable given the CAA
scheme and thickening cloud cover scattered rain showers. Forecast
ranges from near 50F in the panhandle to near 60F north central to
lower/mid 60s far southwest. Overnight lows should also remain
relatively mild as low level winds steadily increase and clouds
stick around. Much like the dew points, most locations should stay
above freezing through dawn tomorrow.

Tomorrow... The surface low continues its trek toward the
Mississippi Valley, while the H7 low cuts toward the Upper Midwest
and the deep upper low drops south of Las Vegas. A broad surface
high also begins to settle into the northern Plains. Additional
precip, mainly in the form of scattered rain showers (mixed with
snow west?), will affect the forecast area as northerly winds really
strengthen. More steady precip may brush the far southwest reaches
of the CWA, depending on the extent of the upslope activity in
Colorado. Despite the northerly low level flow, H85 temps may
actually recover somewhat during the day and hold above 0C.
Without the convective features to force a switch to snow via
dynamic cooling / higher precip rates or deep cold air, not
expecting much of a wintry setup after all. In fact, kept high
temps in the 40s for the majority of the CWA and even lower 50s
far north central. Much like today, precip amounts may really
not be all that impressive, especially across the Sandhills. The
latest guidance from NBM envelope and WPC suggest around a half
inch of liquid south of I-80 and possibly a quarter inch across
the Sandhills for the entire event. The HREF grand ensemble
suggests even less. Should a few rumbles of thunder end up
organizing over south central Neb (areas bordering WFO GID),
perhaps 0.75 to 1.00" will be possible. One solution (the NAM)
pushes this local precip maximum farther west toward North
Platte. The latest snow forecast merely suggests a skiff in the
panhandle, which lines up fairly well with WPC guidance and
HREF. The high end potential now suggests around 2" in the far
west, down from around 6" from yesterday`s solutions. Regarding
the wind, the late morning through mid afternoon will likely
feature the highest speeds. Not much of a PV anomaly signature
is present over the central Plains, but H85 flow is rather
strong on the backside of the low and surface pressure rises
exceed 1 mb/hr for a good chunk of the day. Forecast soundings
suggest 30-35 kt flow at the top of the mixed layer, which could
translate to gusts around 40 mph at the surface. Should a period
of all snow be realized in the western Sandhills, visibility
will be significantly reduced.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

To round out the week, the high pressure overspreads the Great
Plains and dries the forecast area out. Southerly then westerly low
level return flow, helping to keep conditions temperate with highs
generally in the 50s. A strong cold front then drops south later on
Saturday, resulting in highs in the 40s for the latter half of the
weekend. Limited moisture should keep the frontal passage dry.
Daytime minimum humidity values on either side of front actually
hover about 10-15% above critical thresholds. Going into early next
week, another upper trough glances the Missouri River Valley, then a
ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West. Highs should recover
fairly quickly from the front with 50s on Monday and 60s on Tuesday.
The warmer solutions suggest widespread 70s for mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early this
afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska. By
late this afternoon, falling ceilings and increasing
precipitation could lead to MVFR CIGs across western Nebraska.
This will gradually expand in coverage into tonight, with
widespread MVFR/IFR after the end of the valid period. Future
inclusion at both KLBF and KVTN is possible.

Winds remain weak through sunrise before transitioning
northeasterly and strengthening into this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Brown


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