Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A blend of the HRRR, HRRRexp and RAP models plus bias correction was
the basis for the temperature forecast today. These models were on
the warm side of an model envelop depicting highs in the 70s. H850mb
temperatures continue their upward trend and rise toward 17C.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
30s and lower 40s tonight. A weak cold front will drift into Wrn
Neb, perhaps disrupting the radiational cooling process. The front
lower h850mb temperatures to around 15C and this would seem to
support lows as forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Westerly flow will largely prevail over the area through Thursday,
but then turn southwesterly with the approach of a western conus
trough.  Thus warm conditions are forecast with highs in the mid to
upper 70s each day through Friday.  Wednesday appears to be the
coolest day in the mid term as a dry front backs across the region.
Highs in the lower to mid 70s are anticipated, which is still above
average.  Will see an increase in clouds late in the day Friday with
cross sections showing some increase in mid/upper moisture and warm
air advection.  Precipitation looks to hold off however until at
least Saturday as forcing arrives with a stronger cold front mid
day.  The long term models are at odds with timing of the system, so
will maintain a slight chance to chance wording in the forecast up
to 00z Sunday. Temperatures cool to near seasonal norms for the
weekend and early next week with the front, but look to warm once
again just beyond the forecast period.

Fire weather concerns are increasing with warm temperatures and low
relative humidity forecast through much of the work week.  Note that
overnight recovery is anticipated to be poor for much of the
Sandhills early Wednesday. Fuels are not fully cured however and the
strongest wind maximum is east of the lowest RH, so at this time,
not anticipating the need of fire weather headlines.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Latest
satellite imagery and surface plot shows clear skies overhead
with winds light and variable.

Winds will begin increasing late morning with light breezes then
prevailing through the afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes are
expected over much of the area with strongest gusts to 20-25 MPH
anticipated across central and north central NEB. Meanwhile,
winds will be shifting and become more northwesterly in the
afternoon over northwest NEB and the eastern Panhandle. Winds will
lessen and become light in the evening.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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