Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 012331
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE APPROACH OF A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE THAT WILL SPREAD LIGHT QPF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT...SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.  WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...THE WEAK CU THAT DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD BURN OFF LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LOWS WERE DERIVED WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN
MIND...THE COLDEST READINGS OUT WEST...AND WARMER TO THE EAST. OTHER
SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE PLATTE /NORTH AND
SOUTH/ RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND
TOPOGRAPHIC DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED.  WILL HANDLE THE FROST/THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR AREAS WHERE MIN T/S ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35F..BUT
NOT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY...H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SOME 5-6C ACROSS THE CWA...PROMOTING
HIGHS THAT WILL LARGELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT WE FEEL THAT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WAA POTENTIAL AND THE SNOW PACK
WILL BE A FACTOR.

THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE AN AREA
OF MIDLEVEL FGEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
MODELS LARGELY KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAVE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SLIGHTLY LACKING.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SANDHILLS...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS PRESENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID RANGE...

MONDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE H75 TO H5 LAYER WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL FAIRLY DRY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FCST TO BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT LESS THAN 300 J/KG AT
00Z TUESDAY WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS WARM TO 12C-15C BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
NEAR 70 TUESDAY WITH LOWER 70S WEST AND UPPER 60S NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNNY AND DRY BOTH DAYS.

LONG RANGE...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..THEN STILL WARM IN THE 60S
AND 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 5000 TO 8000 AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ATKINSON CONTINUES TO RISE
CURRENTLY AT 7.8 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. THE RIVER REACH IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHER RIVERS INCLUDING THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND
PLATTE ARE ELEVATED AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT SOME LOCATIONS
INCLUDING LEWELLEN...ROSCOE...AND THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH
PLATTE. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THESE RIVER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG


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