Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 140530
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE NRN STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA. A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UP OF MICHIGAN WITH SEVERAL UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
IMPACT US SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...MORE ON THAT BELOW. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...SSWD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS EAST OF THIS
FEATURE WERE SOUTHERLY...AND HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AS OF 2 PM CDT...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDINESS..GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

STRATUS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
DROP TO AROUND 40...HOWEVER MANY WILL STAY ABOVE 40. WARMEST WILL BE
ACROSS SW NEBRASKA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW RETURN BL
MOISTURE. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP SOME STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE...AND HAVING SEEN IT DEVELOP LAST NIGHT SEE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF IT RETURNING...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS UP ACROSS
THE FAR SW...FROM OGA TO IML.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THE STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AS IT SLOWLY
BREAKS UP...AS A TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH...DUE TO
LIMITED ELEVATED MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY MID LAYER WHICH
WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANYTHING REACHES THE GROUND. DO
EXPECT AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO CORRELATE WITH THE
PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FORCED SOUTH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY...BOTH
SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED...WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SRN CWA. INHERITED FCST HAD
A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND DID NOT EXPAND POPS IN AREAL COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DATA ARE INDICATING A DECENT
MID LEVEL DRY LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT QPFS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO SCATTERED AT BEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH...WHERE FCST DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...AND
WILL KEEP THESE AREAS DRY. ON MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
FURTHER EAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST TO AROUND
80 IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE SOLNS INCLUDING THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS BUILD A NICE RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSITION EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE MID RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE...HOWEVER THE
GFS RUN IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND
LEADS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. INHERITED
FCST HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PCPN THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND ONGOING POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLING
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WHERE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT THEN RETURNS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. FEW
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH SURFACE
HEATINGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KECK/JWS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.