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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130226
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
926 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A TROUGH LOCATED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND IN THE NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT WAS NOW MOVING OVER
MINNESOTA...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT NOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN WYOMING. IN
BETWEEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS
GUSTY AOA 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM THE 80S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO
THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...SO IN LIGHT
OF THE EASTERLY WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE
TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS TOWARD SUNRISE AS
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...AND DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE HIGH PLAINS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX T GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW SO HAVE PULLED THE
FORECAST BACK A FEW DEGREES. HAVE ALSO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
TOMORROW AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN THE VICINITY OF A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE TROUGH. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CWA TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

MODELS IN MID AND LONG TERM HAVING PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES.
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUTS
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL CONTINUE POPS WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ON TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL INHIBIT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER LOW DRIVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA IT WILL
MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND FROPA.
MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS FORECAST
AREA AS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS
CARRIED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTHEAST. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 12000 FT AGL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB