Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 312340
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT...BECAUSE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GO THROUGH LBF
03-09Z AND POSSIBLY REACHING BBW 11-14Z IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.