Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 102322
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS COLORADO AND WILL BEGIN TO
EVOLVE INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING BRINGING A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INITIATING FIRST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THEN PROGRESSING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND
IT WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED WEST/NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED MORE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OUR AREA IS JUST ON THE EDGE...AND WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SEVERE MENTIONED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND OR WET SNOW. WILL NOT PUT ACCUMULATION INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE...WHERE A
FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL BE A
RAW DAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND STRONG NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS SLOWLY EASING. CHILLY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING YIELDING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO OPERATIONAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL CAP RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.
INTERESTING THOUGH THAT THE GEFS HAS A CLOSED/MOIST SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS FAR OUT...SO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SHORT RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND/OR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z. THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED BY RADAR IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NEBRASKA...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXTENT THE STORMS WILL EXPAND AND WHERE THEY WILL MOVE. BECAUSE OF
THAT UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN EITHER OF THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR VTN OR LBW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL FORM SOUTH OF VTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SOAR INTO THE 70S. DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA AND MANY SITES WILL SEE RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT.
SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED
RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...HIGHS IN THE
70S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALSO WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH. THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOMEZ
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK






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