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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241518 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1018 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS EXPANDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WE BEGAN TO MIX.
SEVERAL SITES NOW ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO PUT OUT A SHORT FUSED
ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. CUT BACK ON HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASED WINDS SOME.
TOOK THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IS LIKELY
TO BRING THE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL...FIRST AT
LBF AND WEST AROUND 13Z AND THEN VTN AND WEST AROUND 15Z. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS MAY GO ABOVE 2000
FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BRING HIGHER CEILINGS TO
IML...OGA AND LBF FROM 00-03Z THEN BBW AND POSSIBLY TIF 03-06Z. HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND NEAR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AND MAY GUST OVER 45KT.

LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER