000
FXUS63 KLBF 200702 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
202 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. H5 RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H5 WAVE UNDERNEATH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW H850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 45 KT AND THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THIS IN LINE WITH KUDX VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING 40
TO 50 KT AT 07Z. MERRIMAN PROFILER IS OUT OF SERVICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESIDES. H85 WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS AT THE SFC NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW EXIT OF UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER. HYDROLOGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. LOWS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHWEST. SHARP RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ONL-BBW-LBF BY 11Z.

AFTER 15Z...RAIN IS LIKELY TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
NEAR MHN...TIF AND ONL AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RAIN AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ISSUED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KEITH AND SOUTHERN GARDEN
COUNTIES AS UPPER LOW KEEPS A NARROW BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
COUNTIES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING SLOWLY EAST. SECONDARY ROADS ARE
MUDDY AND SOME HAVE WATER CROSSING THE ROAD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...POWER