000
FXUS63 KLBF 172016
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING
AND TRACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND LARGE HAIL AT THE ONSET OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...BUT
THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE WIND AS THE CLUSTER EVOLVES
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO SLIGHT AS NO REAL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT TO HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE WARMING UP A BIT...WITH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING ONCE AGAIN
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION. WHILE SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOST OF
IT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...MOST STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE NAM
MODEL.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WILL OCCUR AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LESS IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY
THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA AND
BECOME STALLED OUT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWEST. THE BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN PUSH EAST INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
STAY SOUTH OF THE KVTN TAF SITE...BUT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE KLBF
TAF SITE EARLY TO MID EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR