Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at  310 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Cool SFC high pressure centered across the high plains this
afternoon will drift east overnight. Cool temps aloft just
enough for some lingering evening CU, although shallow CU so no
precip expected. Clouds quickly diminish after sunset with mostly
clear skies early tonight. Overnight the ridge builds across the
area with a warm front to lift through the region. Some mid high
clouds with the passage which linger into the morning. Lift is
limited so only expect the increase of cloud cover. The clearing
early will allow for temps to fall quickly with temps falling into
the 30s. Might even see a slight rise once clouds increase.

Tomorrow eyes focus on the warming 850 mb temps as ridge builds.
850 mb temps today 3c to 7c (coolest in the east) warming to 12c
to 15c. Resulting sfc high temps ranging from upper 60s across N
central to lower 70s across the west. Far SW could top out close
to 75.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The main challenges in the long term period were temperatures and
dew points/humidity. Sensible weather will be fairly quiet until
Tuesday-Tuesday Night when low precipitation chances will be
present at times. Western and north central NEB will be in the
course of a warming trend beginning Friday that is anticipated to
persist through much of next week. The long term will be
characterized by above normal normal highs, with highs peaking
Saturday generally 14-20 degrees above normal, and predominantly
dry conditions.

Tomorrow Night through Sunday: The large scale pattern aloft
features an amplified pattern at the start of the period with a
500 hPa trough over the central Great Lakes to southeast CONUS and
a broad area of high pressure positioned across the southwest
CONUS-Southern Plains to Northern Plains. The trough will move
eastward evolving into a closed low over the lower Great Lakes
Saturday while the ridge will advance more over the southern
Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley encompassing much of the
Central CONUS. Meanwhile, a disturbance will be moving eastward
aloft across the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains Saturday. A
weak surface low will then develop and deepen across the Upper
Missouri Valley to the central High Plains Saturday that will
promote southerly winds across western and north central NEB at
the surface and at low-levels. Under southwesterly flow warm air
will be ushered into the local forecast area with 850 hPa
temperatures ranging from 16-22 C, warmest in the eastern NEB
Panhandle. Further, modest winds and wind gusts are expected to
develop late morning into the afternoon Saturday as a sufficiently
mixed boundary layer is expected to develop and grow. This should
increase the potential for low-level winds to mix down to the
surface wherein winds to 8-16 mph are expected with gusts to 16-26
mph possible, the strongest winds of which will be in the central
and eastern NEB Sandhills.

Highs Saturday will peak around 80 in extreme southwest NEB to
the lower-mid 70s in north central NEB. A weak cold front
associated with the surface low will then move east across the
local forecast area Saturday Night with surface high pressure then
filling in behind said low across the northern and central Plains
Sunday. While temperatures will decrease given the cooler air
behind the front, highs will still manage to stay 8-12 degrees
above normal with forecast highs from the mid 60s in north central
NEB to lower 70s in southwest NEB. Further, lighter winds out of
the north turning more easterly in the afternoon can be expected.
Skies will remain mostly clear through this period.

Sunday Night through Thursday: Deterministic guidance are in
pretty decent agreement through Tuesday, however, beyond that time
there are more apparent differences in phase and amplitude in the
large scale pattern. Of which, the ridge over the central CONUS is
expected to breakdown Tuesday with multiple disturbances embedded
in the mid-level flow late Monday-Tuesday. A stronger disturbance
Tuesday will bring slight chances to chances across much of the
area Tuesday afternoon-evening. In addition, a weak cold front
Tuesday should result in cooler highs, albeit they are still
forecast to be above seasonal normals for this time of year. The
ridge then begins to build again at 500 hPa Wednesday-Thursday,
though the GFS is stronger and faster in building the ridge across
the central CONUS by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

MVFR/VFR clouds will continue to move southeast during the
afternoon, bringing way to mostly sunny skies. High clouds will
roll into the area overnight. Winds will remain light much of the
day and will switch to the south overnight.


Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

RH values falling to around 20 percent across much of western Neb
with the southeastern panhandle into far southwestern Neb (by
Imperial) seeing RH values nearing 15 percent Friday. Winds for
the most part expected to be around 10 to 15 mph. This will cause
elevated fire weather conditions. Warmer on Saturday with more
widespread RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range. Again winds
for the most part around 15 mph or lighter where the RH values are
the lowest. Another elevated day for fire weather conditions and
will need to monitor this day closely.




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