Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 182120
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 15-20KT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS A
CRAIG HIGH HAS DEVELOPED AND AIDED IN BRINGING MORE DRY AIR TO THE
SURFACE. THUS TEMPS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SW NEB...WITH 40S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THE SNOW PACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE US/CAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FOCUS IS THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR...AND WHAT IT BRINGS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS FOCUS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW TO THE CWA.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT WITH THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED/NEAR SATURATED LAYER AROUND -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE MOIST LAYER. LIFT IS
LIMITED IN THE MOIST LAYER SO ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW
LINE...WHERE THE BEST LL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

TOMORROW MORE DRY AIR FILLS IN WITH NW WINDS INCREASING...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FLURRIES. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN SLOWLY
RETREAT THE STRATUS. HAVE SIDED WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SW
AFTER SEEING THE ABILITY TO MIX TODAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR SW NEB FOR TEMPS AS THIS PLAYS ON THE
LOWER CLOUDS NOT PERSISTING INTO THE DAY AND THE NW WINDS ALLOWING
MIXING THE LOWER LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DE-AMPLIFIES. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT AND THE GENERAL TREND THIS WEEKEND
AS SOUTH WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH THE LOW 50S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER SURFACE TO 900MB WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ABOVE IT. WITHOUT SEEDING FROM ABOVE...THE DROPLETS WILL BE SUPER-
COOLED LIQUID.

ON SUNDAY...A STORM SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE...A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH NEBRASKA MONDAY AND BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WITH THE RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. TONIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BACK
INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOW /MVFR/ CIGS. THE LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO KVTN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
TOWARDS SUNRISE. MORNING FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND DOES
INCREASE THE CEILING HEIGHT FOR KVTN. MEANWHILE THE FRONT REACHES
KLBF IN THE MORNING HOURS. DID INTRODUCE A BKN025 CIG INTO THE
TAF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HEIGHT OF THE CIG...WHICH
COULD BE IN THE LOWER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

CONTINUED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LEWELLEN EVEN THOUGH THE MORNING
OBSERVATIONS HAD IT JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT
TEMPS TODAY ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH A RETURN TO BELOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. THIS THAW AND REFREEZING WILL CAUSE THE ICE TO BREAK UP
AND COULD CAUSE THE ICE JAM TO REFORM. THUS WILL HOLD OFF AND
MONITOR AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE THIS WARM AFTERNOON AND
COLD NIGHT AND POTENTIAL BREAK UP/REFORMING OF THE ICE JAM
CONTINUES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





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