Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 311730
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AT 08Z...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO ERN NEBR...KANSAS TO THE TX PNHDL.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE. A FEW
SHOWERS NW OF THE BLACK HILLS WEST ACROSS NRN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 54 AT PINE RIDGE TO 41 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...THERE MAY BE SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND POSSIBLY AS FEW SPRINKLES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BELOW 700MB STILL FAIRLY DRY SO
NO MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. HIGH FROM NEAR 70 ONL TO 81 AT
IML. ALSO A BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND EAST OF AN IML THROUGH VTN
LINE AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN SRN
IDAHO WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WEST OF AIA THROUGH LBF WHERE HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 80 AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS AREA WHERE MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS AND 0-3KM CAPES OF
400-800 J/KG. COVERAGE COULD BECOME SCATTERED MOVING ACROSS SWRN
NEBR THIS EVENING WITH POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER MONDAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS.
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE RIDGING
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER NORTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INVOF OF THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WILL CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AS THEY TRACK
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC DEW PTS NEARING 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL HELP PULL DEEP
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EASTERLY UPSLOPE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST MODLES ARE DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FIRST...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...HEAVY RAIN
WILL LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS. HAIL
AND ERRATIC WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF
STORMS.  INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENET ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AT KLBF...AND POSSIBLY KVTN BY 09Z. IFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z MONDAY AT KLBF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE...AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WHILE ROSCOE AND BRADY WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THE STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE IS
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT. LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WILL ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AT TIMES THIS WEEK AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THIS RUNOFF COULD CAUSE
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST WARNING
INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG







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