Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 142353 CCA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

There will be at least a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through Friday across the forecast area. An
upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Basin in the
western U.S. This will keep a weak surface frontal boundary across
the areas from near Ogallala through O`Neill tonight. While this
will be a weak focus, southwest flow aloft with weak disturbances
embedded will bring 30 percent chances behind the boundary for
areas west of highway 83. Deep layer shear will be fairly weak
this evening with 800mb capes 500-1000 j/kg this evening. While
instability will remain at or above 500 j/kg, the attendant
disturbance looks to lift from northern Nebraska into South Dakota
after midnight. This will cause pops to end across southwest
Nebraska, with decreasing pops north and east overnight. With
skies from partly to mostly cloudy, overnight lows fairly mild in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, a 20-30 percent chance
mainly north central, with models mostly dry through the day,
until late afternoon. By late afternoon, a focus for surface based
storms to develop along the weak surface boundary, especially
from Broken Bow north through Bassett. Moderate instability from
1500 to 2500 j/kg east of this line, with deep layer shear 30 to
35 knots. This supportive of a few strong storms, which could
briefly become severe prior to 00Z Saturday. Highs to contrast
from the upper 70s northwest to near 90 southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Chances for strong thunderstorms continues Friday evening east of
Bassett through Broken Bow. Thunderstorms may be strong to briefly
severe, with locally damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter
size. Thunderstorms should diminish or end after midnight, with
shower chances across the northwest as the upper trough and cold
front advances into the forecast area. Lows from near 45 northwest
to near 55 southeast, indicative of the cooler airmass settling
in. Just a slight chance for showers northern Nebraska on Saturday
with much cooler highs from the mid 60s north central and 70 to
75 south. Skies to become mostly sunny as subsidence settles in.
Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning diminish into the
afternoon.

For Saturday night, lows from the upper 30s northwest and mid to
upper 40s southeast. While patchy frost is possible in the
northwest, mos guidance suggests lows to be a few degrees too
warm for this to occur. Slightly warmer Sunday in the lower to mid
70s with a return to southeast winds. The weak surface front will
lift north Sunday night, with a slight chance for showers and a
few thunderstorms across the Southeast zones. Pops were lowered
slightly from previous forecast.

Dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday night. A deeper
upper trough will dig into the western U.S., with weak upper
ridging and southwest flow persisting across the Central Plains.
This will keep highs in the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday, then
cooling to the upper 70s Thursday behind a pacific cold front with
a slight chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Regional radar display shows isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Panhandle into southeast WY. Elsewhere,
showers/thunderstorms have developed across northeast CO, albeit
more isolated in coverage. Current thinking is this activity will
continue to move into southwest NEB with isolated-scattered
coverage activity blossoming across western NEB in the evening
hours. Anticipate more rain showers at this time than
thunderstorms. The isolated to scattered activity will move
northeast out of the area/diminish in the early morning hours.
Stratus with sub-VFR ceilings expected to develop across northwest
NEB and parts of northern NE early morning into early afternoon
tomorrow. Winds will shift overnight into tomorrow as a surface
low evolves and moves from extreme southwest NEB to north central
NEB. Strongest winds over central NEB tomorrow under southerly
flow and gusts 20 to 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...ET



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