Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KLBF 040850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. INBETWEEN BOTH
SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT COULD
DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST SITES HAVING
A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP. 850
MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS C...WITH
GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK. WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CETRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMEPRATURES. THURSDAY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE
LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C
TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE
WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO 12C
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND AGREE WITH
SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER TSTMS SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND HAVE REMOVED IT FROM KLBF TAF. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL NEAR
OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS CURRENTLY JUST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS A RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMING WEEKEND
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS
RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.