Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 022037
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL TODAY. A BROAD RIDGE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH CLOSING IN ON THE
PACIFIC NW AND ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH...ACROSS KS AND WESTERN OK. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA WITH WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON NOT TO FAR SEASONAL...AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO BUFKIT SOUNDING FAVORS STRATUS OVER FOG...THUS
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT STILL A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE COOLING TONIGHT...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO THE
WEST WILL LESS CLOUDS...AND LOWER 60S IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

TOMORROW THE WARM AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...IN THE 90S. SOME
CONCERN ON HOW FAST THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL BURN OFF.
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT WE ARE GETTING INTO A
LOWER SUN ANGLE WHEN STRATUS SOMETIMES LINGERS LONGER THAN MODELS
EXPECT. FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED
STATUS TO DELAY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SHOWERS
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR H7 WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. A
COOLDOWN THURSDAY TO THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHEAST. BREEZY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RESIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY
WITH VERY LITTLE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH
WITHIN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND H85 TEMPS ONLY
FROM 11C-16C WITH AN INVERSION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP
HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FAIRLY GOOD MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY
FORECAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM NEAR 72 SATURDAY TO THE MID/UPPER 70S SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN STREAM NORTH AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP. CARRYING 20 POPS EAST OF
HWY 83...WITH CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST TO
REACH 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOCALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM FOG MAY DEVELOP.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...SO FORECAST DOES
INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISBY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL TOWARDS SUNRISE. IF
FOG DOES DEVELOP...VISBY COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 MILE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK




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