Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 020430
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A STALLED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH DRIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CU DEVELOPING...ALBEIT LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
TO THE CU AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR AND THE RAP ARE RECOGNIZING THE
BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING QPF ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES WHICH SO FAR HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. BELIEF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOT THERE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE CU...THUS
LITTLE/LIMITED POPS EARLY ON TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD SUFFICE TO GET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING/MCS. MODELS FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEB...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD SEE EVERYONE GET WET AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR ALL.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHED BY THE FIRST WAVE. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AS
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BACK SIDE OF DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT WRN
NEBR...AS THE MAIN SFC FRONT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN OKLA.
RETAINED 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
SERLY WINDS TO THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN PRESENT. A LEAD
DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING POPS SOME
ACROSS NRN NEBR PER THE GFS OUTPUT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE INCREASED TO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY. LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS OR TWO
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS WRN NEBR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL MONDAY ACROSS
CNTRL KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BROAD AND BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO SYNOPTIC
SETUP...WITH MODELS FAVORING MOST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 THIS WEEKEND LOWER
SLIGHTLY TO 77 TO 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS IS LOW TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS...A BROAD AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM NWRN NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS...THEN IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS
3SM. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS ARE VERY DIVERGENT IN HOW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
IMPACT THE PCPN THREAT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 12 HRS
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL...SO DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCTS MENTION ATTM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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