Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211723
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1123 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 419 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

At 09z...Surface low pressure extended south from Montana and the
western Dakotas into the front range of Wyoming and Colorado.
Temperatures 26 at North Platte and 30 at Broken Bow where winds
were nearly calm, to 45 at Valentine, with a southwest wind at 15
mph. Skies remained mostly clear throughout western Nebraska.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Today...Anomalously warm 850mb temperatures from 14C-17C will mix
down to the surface. Highs from 73 to 77 degrees, with the warmer
readings across southwest and central Nebraska. West winds will
increase by late morning and afternoon to 20 to 30 mph north and 15
to 25 mph south. Skies will remain mostly sunny. Record highs may be
tied or broken. The forecast high of 77 at Broken Bow may break the
record of 73 degrees set in 1982. The forecast highs of 77 at
Imperial may break the record of 74 set in 1982. The forecast high
of 76 at North Platte may break the record of 75 set in 1995 and
2000. The forecast high of 74 may come near the record high of 76
set in 1995.

Tonight...Another mild night expected. Winds to remain from the
southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph. Lows mainly from the upper 30s to
lower 40s, except mid 30s parts of the eastern panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Wednesday through Friday...Main concerns for this forecast period
are the temperatures and precipitation. A cold front will push
through the forecast area on Wednesday dropping temperatures during
the day. Highs will range from the mid 50s across the northern
Sandhills to the upper 60s and maybe even 70 degrees across our
southeastern forecast area. For Thursday...looking at a cross
section from Kearney to Gordon...there will be good frontogenetic
lift in combination of an abundant amount of Omega extending across
the Sandhills which will help with lift. Temperatures play a major
role on Thursday as changeover to snow will be a major factor in the
amount of snow that will fall. Decided to lower temperatures a
couple degrees...which in turn led to higher snowfall amounts of 6
to 8 inches across the northern forecast area. That being said if
temperatures warm up just a few degrees warmer than
forecast...snowfall amounts will be less. Winds will also be gusty
with the passing system as wind gust of up to 30 mph are possible.

Friday night through Monday...By Friday night snow will have moved
east and out of the forecast area. Temperatures will be in the
single digits to teens for lows on Friday night as new snow pack
should keep temperatures cool. Temperatures will remain cool through
the weekend with highs only in 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon across
all western Nebraska terminals. However, wind will be an issue
this afternoon, especially across northern Nebraska where west
winds will gust to near 30 kts. Winds lighten overnight and
transition to northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 419 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Critical fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon across
fire zone 209 in Central Nebraska. Breezy west winds 15 to 25 mph
will develop by late morning into the afternoon as temperatures warm
to 74 to 77 degrees. Minimum relative humidity will fall to the 16
to 22 percent range. Therefore a red flag warning is in effect from
18z-00z for zone 209. The remaining fire zones will exhibit elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon due to wind and minimum RH
values from 15 to 20 percent many areas.

Slightly higher RH values and lighter winds on Wednesday will lessen
fire weather concerns.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ209.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Snively
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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