Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM  CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLBF AFTER 23Z/21ST AND INCLUDED IN A PROB30 FOR 5SM TSRA BKN070CB.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN EAST OF KVTN TERMINAL AND DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER



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