Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290836
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING UPPER WAVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY AS COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA KNOCKS ON
OUR BORDER AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOL RAW DAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO KEEP US IN THE CLOUDS ALL
DAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY I HAVE KEPT RAINSHOWERS GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
HAVE CUT POPS BACK SOME LOOKING AT THE RADARS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS GETTING LIT UP ALONG THE FRONT BUT
ABSENT LIGHTNING FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. HAVE KEPT POPS UP TO THE
NORTH BUT REDUCED THEM TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. GFS AND NAM WITH
WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SANDHILLS TODAY. HAVE ENDED
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...GOING WITH PERSISTENCE. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S TODAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT WITH 39 AT KVTN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL TRANSITION INTO THE
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE UPPER AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A RETURN SERLY WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN
NEBR. PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNNY SKIES...AND
HIGHS 65 TO 70. ON SUNDAY...A LEESIDE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...A THERMAL
RIDGE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING LOWER 80S INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AS LOWER 70S LINGER IN THE EAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING HIGHS TO 80 TO 85 DEGREES. LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY DRY AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE PARTS OF
NCTRL AND ERN PANHANDLE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WRN CONUS WITH SWRLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT ONLY PERSIST...BUT AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MEANS AT LEAST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. WHILE THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...WRN NEBR SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TIMES.
THE BEST CHC ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
FAVORABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OR TWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS HOLT COUNTY WILL EXIT SHORTLY. THEREAFTER...TWO ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE FIRST IS ONGOING WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE SECOND COULD
BE MOVING THROUGH NRN NEB FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UPSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PLATTE RIVER
FROM THE CONFLUENCE TO BRADY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN
SHOULD NOT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FLOODING. CHECK WITH LATEST
WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...POWER










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