Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 012355
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALOFT OVER
HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGN OF WINTER
ACROSS THE CNTL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS PATTERN SHIFT
OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALASKA WILL BE DRAWN DOWN THROUGH
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS KS AND NEB BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NWRN NEB AND ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF WRN
AND NCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
ONTARIO WILL DICTATE THE POSITION OF A BELT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TODAYS MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THIS COLD AIR LOCKED IN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED A STRONG PV ANOMALY
NEAR SALT LAKE CITY...WITH ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT IN THE BASE OF THE
WEST COAST TROUGH NEAR LAS VEGAS. THE STRONG DISTURBANCE LOCATED
NEAR SALT LAKE WILL ROTATE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAIN COULD BE
QUITE HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LIFT QUICKLY DIMINISHES TO THE NORTH...AND ONLY A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

THIS IS A COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAKING HOLD THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES AFTER A FEW MORNING SHOWERS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER WEAKER
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FCST AREA THURSDAY PRODUCING AND AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS NWRN NEB. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
INVERSION AND FREEZE ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE 50S
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY FROST
THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY THAT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WOULD CONTINUE TO DOWN SLOPE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS PRODUCING MILD
WEATHER. H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20C BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED FOR AREAS
TO THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KLBF FROM 06Z-10Z. SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG








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