Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141153
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered rain showers persist into this afternoon and
   evening for portions of southwest and central Nebraska, with
   light accumulations expected.

-  Winds strengthen from the north today, with gusts of 35 to
   40 miles per hour expected.

-  Dry conditions are expected into the weekend and early next
   week, with temperatures warming back above average into the
   60s by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Currently, the initial deformation band of rain that brought light
accumulations across southwest Nebraska continues to wane, with a
new band forming across portions of south central into central
Nebraska. Aloft, a deep upper low is centered over southern NV/UT,
with a shortwave trough (evident on upper level WV imagery) centered
across eastern CO/far western KS. At the surface, a low was centered
over portions of eastern Kansas.

For today and tonight, expect a gradual increase in rain coverage
again across central and eastern Nebraska, as the aforementioned
shortwave and associated surface low. Just how far west this
deformation axis extends remains lower confidence, though enough
signal exists for this to push into areas primarily southeast
of a Maywood to O`Neill line to carry chance (25-40%) POPs
through much of this afternoon. This looks to remain as an all
rain p-type, with a lack of cold air in the lowest few
kilometers of the profile, and meager forcing for ascent to
promote any enhanced dynamic cooling. Amounts look to remain
very light, with just a few hundredths for most, with locally up
to a tenth of an inch possible.

The more prominent issue today will be winds, as H7-H85 winds begin
to strengthen as the aforementioned low continues to deepen
across far NW MO/southern IA into this afternoon. As cooler air
continues to wrap in behind the departing system, subtly
increasing cold air advection should promote enough mechanical
mixing to transfer the higher momentum flow downwards. Wind
gusts look to quickly increase through the morning hours, with
gusts of 35 to 40 miles per hour this afternoon. As the system
begins to depart to the east and the surface pressure gradient
relaxes this evening, winds look to quickly wane after sunset.
This all points to a cloudy, windy, and dreary day across much
of the area.

By late this afternoon, increasing upslope flow should lead to
expanding precipitation coverage across the Front Range of CO, with
sn extension of precip into the Plains and far southwest Nebraska.
As temperatures cool after sunset, there is a brief window for a
rain/snow and even snow p-type for areas west of HWY 61 and south of
HWY 26. That said, little to no accumulating snow is expected, with
a continued lack of deeper forcing for ascent, marginal low level
temperatures, and very light precipitation amounts anticipated
(<0.10").

All precipitation quickly ends early Friday morning, with dry
conditions expected to persist through the day. Skies clear into the
afternoon hours, in part due to increasing subsidence aloft behind a
quickly passing upper level trough axis. Flow transitions west-
southwesterly into the afternoon, with subtly increasing warm air
advection and boosts temperatures back into the 50s. Lows overnight
fall into the upper 20s to 30s, as a cold front quickly dives
southward through the area. This is in association with a surface
low (and deep upper trough) ejecting southward through Ontario. The
more mild lows (30s) are expected across north central Nebraska,
where stronger cold air advection is expected and should keep the
boundary layer mechanically mixed. Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30
miles per hour can be expected early Saturday morning across north
central Nebraska after frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Winds again increase Saturday afternoon in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front, with widespread gusts of 25-30 miles
per hour. The colder air looks to primarily filter off to the
east of the area into the Upper Midwest, keeping highs near
average in the 50s across northern Nebraska to the low 60s in
far southwest Nebraska. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives
Sunday, with another cold front pushing through the area. This
time the colder air does look to back into the area, and highs
look to struggle to climb out of the 40s to low 50s for most
locations. The exception south of I-80, where mid-50s are
possible. This also leads to another windy day, with widespread
gusts of 30-35 miles per hour from the north.

The colder air is quickly shunted back to the east of the area by
Monday, as a surface low ejects eastward across the International
Border. This drags a surface trough through the area Monday
afternoon, with surface flow quickly transitioning southwesterly.
The increasing warm advection boosts highs back into the upper 50s
to 60s, and this marks the beginning of a warming trend as upper
ridging amplifies across the western CONUS. Highs look to remain in
the 60s (and even 70s on Wednesday) through the end of the forecast
period. Will also have to monitor for the return of elevated fire
concerns, as the combination of warmer temperatures and drier air
could present issues with limited green-up observed across the area
thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The primary aviation concern for the KLBF and KVTN terminals
will be the strong, gusty, northerly winds with gusts from 25KT
to 30KT from 15Z Thursday until 00Z Friday. Winds will diminish
to below 12KT after 03Z Friday. Isolated rain showers will be
possible during the day today, mainly south and east of the
KLBF terminal.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg


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