Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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554
FXUS63 KLBF 251349 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
849 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Dense fog is underway across parts of Ncntl Neb. A dense fog
advisory is in place until 16z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The forecast challenges in the short term include: fog this
morning and fog potential late tonight, sky cover early today,
and temperatures. Primary sensible weather concerns revolved
around said fog potential/fog formation. Surface plot shows
visibilities being reduced in portions of central and north
central NEB  as far west as O`Neill-Ord-Kearney based on the
latest observations. Areal coverage appears to be patchy presently
given viable web cams and obs. Likewise, stratus located in the
area there have been seen to build-down towards the surface over
the last three hours or so. Latest satellite imagery shows stratus
over much of north central and central NEB with clouds clearing
over southwest NEB.

Patchy fog is expected to continue to develop and spread across
north central NEB based on latest trends and hi-res guidance.
Support for formation is aided by residual moisture with the
addition of moisture from earlier precipitation and slight upslope
flow. Current thinking is patchy fog will spread westward into
parts of western Cherry county-Highway 83-Lincoln County this
morning. Dense fog is not expected at this time. Fog/stratus will
dissipate across much of the area by mid-late morning with mostly
sunny skies expected today. A warmer day is expected compared to
yesterday given decent insolation, sufficient mixing, and the
warmer air aloft at low-levels. 850 hPa temperatures will be
increasing and are expected to range from 4-13 C from east to west
this afternoon. Highs today will be about near-normal across
north central NEB to 5-15 degrees above normal in western NEB.
Overnight, potential for fog formation exists again with decent
moisture in the lower-levels and light winds  current thinking
is best chances will be across the eastern half of the local
forecast area. Cloud cover will be increasing overnight.
Otherwise, above normal lows are expected with mid-upper 30s
forecast.

Outside of fog, generally quiet conditions are expected. The large
scale pattern features a closed low currently over OK that shows
up nicely in the latest water vapor imagery. The system appears to
be vertically stacked at this point. Elsewhere, a mid-level short
wave ridge will move gradually eastward across the Central Plains
today though it will dampen late today and tonight as the next
system moves into the Northern High Plains and Central/Southern
Rockies overnight. A surface high pressure ridge currently extends
overhead from the Upper Mississippi Valley. The ridge will weaken
and move into eastern NEB this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Rain chances return on Sunday as a developing low pressure system
develops and moves across Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The bulk
of the rain and thunderstorms with this system will stay south of
the Nebraska border, however, some isolated light rain showers
are still possible along the northern fringe. Any showers that do
develop across southern Nebraska are expected to be short lived as
high pressure builds in from the north. As a result of clouds and
possible rain on Sunday, temperatures will be slightly cooler.
Highs rise into the low to upper 50s.

High pressure will take hold of the region on Monday bringing
drier conditions to north central Nebraska. Plenty of sunshine on
Monday will allow temperatures to return to the low 60s. Clouds
increase late Monday as the next system approaches the region from
the west.

While the next system arrives early Tuesday morning, this system
will once again be focused more to the west and south of the
forecast area. However, this does not mean that central Nebraska
will not see any precipitation. We will still get a fair amount of
rain out of this system, which is much needed across the area.
Current guidance supports between a half inch and 1 inch of new
rainfall. With 850 mb temperatures between 1 and 5 degrees C,
precipitation is expected to be all rain for the most part. The
Pine Ridge region could see some wet snowflakes on Wednesday
morning. No snow accumulations are expected. With rain showers
expected, highs will only reach into the mid to upper 50s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain sticks around through Wednesday evening. Beyond Wednesday
evening, confidence in precipitation chances drops. Small
chances of precipitation are possible through the end of the week
as weak disturbances impact portions of the northern and western
forecast area. Model consistency is quite low with these systems
though, and therefore, have only put in low chance pops to the
forecast. There`s a chance that these systems will not even
develop, which would result in dry weather through the rest of the
week. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next
couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main aviation concerns are fog and flight categories this morning
across north central NEB and then again late tonight. Latest
surface plot shows reduced visibilities being reduced attributable
to fog in portions of central and north central NEB. Fog/low
stratus is affecting sites as far west as Valentine, Ainsworth,
O`Neill, Ord, and Holdrege presently. Fog areal coverage appears
to be patchy. Threat for IFR/MVFR conditons will continue until
mid morning when conditions improve. Confidence in fog impacting
KLBF this mornign has diminished based on latest trends and
guidance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail rest of today and
over much of tonight. Increasing sky cover begins tonight. Threat
for patchy fog exists then late tonight/early tomorrow morning,
mainly over north central/central NEB. However, confidence in
occurrence is low so elected to not include in the KLBF or KVTN
TAF at this point. Will need to continue to monitor this for
possibly adding it in a later TAF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006>010-
026-027-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...ET



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