Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261133
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

A highly amplified H5 pattern continues across the CONUS tonight.
High pressure was anchored off the California coast with a ridge
extending north into western portions of the Northwest
Territories of Canada. East of the ridge, a trough of low
pressure extended from Manitoba south to the mid Missouri valley.
A high amplitude ridge was east of this trough and extended from
northern Ohio into Hudson Bay with another trough of low pressure
located over the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, cool
Canadian high pressure has built into the region overnight. As of
3 AM CDT, the high was located over northeastern Colorado. Light
westerly winds and clear skies were present across western and
north central Nebraska, and with dry air in place, temperatures
were in the middle to upper 30s, with lower 40s present At
O`Neill and Ainsworth.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Temperatures will be the main forecast concern over the next 24
hours as high pressure dominates the weather pattern today and
tonight. For today: After a cool start in the 30s, winds will
swing around to the northwest as high pressure builds southeast
from Colorado into southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Much warmer H85
air will push into the forecast area this afternoon with H85
temperatures ranging from the lower teens C in the northeast, to
the upper teens C in the southwest. This will equate to highs in
the lower 70s in the east, to upper 70s in southwest Nebraska.
Another cool night is in store for western and north central
Nebraska tonight. Skies will be clear and winds light, however
not expecting temps to be quite as cold as this mornings
readings. Dew points will increase this afternoon which should
help to boost lows tonight. As the forecast stands, we should see
a 2 to 4 degree boost in lows for tonight compared to Monday
morning`s readings. The MET and MAV guidance has caught onto this
and a blend of the two was utilized for the min temp forecast
tonight. That being said, lows will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s, so frost is not anticipated for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Temperatures continue to be the main focus in the long term,
along with low precip chances over the weekend. Initially models
in fair agreement with the upper levels as a close low drifts
across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio River valley. Weak
ridging across the Rockies will slide to the plains then flatten
as a trough digs off the Pacific NW coast. By the weekend models
struggle to agree on how to handle the closed low to the east,
which is common this time of year and leads to low confidence end
to the long term forecast.

The ridging will bring warmer temps to the region for Tuesday
with highs in the upper 70s across N central Neb to the lower 80s
across SW Neb. Backdoor cold front will slide southwest with high
pressure settling in behind the front. This cooler air is more
pronounced with the latest model run compared to previous,
however all models have come in cooler for Wednesday and forecast
follows, especially for N central where highs will be in the
lower 70s. Cool air is shallow and the higher elevations to the
SW are likely to see highs similar to Tuesday.

The transition to SW flow later in the week with a couple
disturbances to push across the area for the weekend. Still
monitoring moisture return which models have delayed with
forecast now dry for the later half of the week with the arrival
of low pops for the weekend. Temps for the most part are
seasonal. Although pending the downstream upper low movement,
significant changes to pops and temps could be possible by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

With high pressure entrenched across the central plains, skies
will be clear over the next 24 hours across western and north
central Nebraska. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 15 KTS
today becoming variable at under 10 KTS tonight.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-
022>024-035-036-056>059-069-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler



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