Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 100827
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS
FLATTENED OUT BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. H85 TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 20C FAR NORTHEAST TO
32C FAR SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN HIGHS FROM MID 80S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 90S SERN PNHDL AND SOUTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED IN NERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS WRN NEBR WILL INCREASE TO 3000-4000 J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPES.
0-6KM SHEAR WILL RANGE AS HIGH AS 30-45KTS. MAINTAINED 30 POPS
INTO CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTY AFTER 21Z. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
COUNTY.

FOR TONIGHT...AS A LLVL JET INTENSIFIES...ISOLATED STORMS NEAR 00Z
SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SCTRL SD/NCTRL NEBR
AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO
NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS NCTRL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST AND
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE MID AND LATER PARTS OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEN TEMPERATURES AS A COLDER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL MIGRATE EAST AND BY FRIDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THIS POINT WILL
BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE SURFACE
PATTERN INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SEE AN OPEN GULF...WITH MOISTURE BEING
PULLED NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DEWPOINTS STICKING IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS NEBRASKA IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE STRONGER CAP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE TIMING OF SAID SHORTWAVES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC SO
DON/T HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WHEN TO PUT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE LITTERED WITH RAIN
CHANCES. THE FIRST MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE
FASTER MODEL WHICH PRODUCED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SAME
SHORTWAVE THROUGH LATER...INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH THE BETTER
DIURNAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE NAM
SHOWING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH 30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. AND WITH MU CAPES POTENTIALLY UP
TOWARDS 2-3K J/KG WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE DO DEVELOP. THEN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES FROM MODEL TO MODEL
DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MUCH FOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND IN GENERAL USED A MODEL BLEND. DESPITE EXPECTING
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST PLACES AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF ALBERTA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BY SUNDAY WILL START TO DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS WITH THE TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE
CONUS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR...PUSHING THE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EAST. STILL KEPT SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO MINNESOTA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z TUESDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO LESS THAN
10C ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING
IN...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WOULD SUGGEST THE
COOLER FORECAST HIGHS. IN CASE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD SLOW
DIDN/T WANT TO COOL HIGHS TOO MUCH SO JUST TRENDED LOWER AT THIS
POINT BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP THIS TIMING MAY NEED A NON-DIURNAL
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS LOWER
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

LOCALLY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY AND DID TREND HIGHS
DOWN MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID
70S MOST PLACES. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE AS COLD AS ___ BUT DIDN/T
WANT TO GO THAT COLD AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING AREAS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH THE DRY/HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCING THE REGION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE DRY. PRIOR
FORECASTS HAD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH
GOOD CONSENSUS FROM THE LONGER RANGED MODELS KEEPING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE LESSENED IN
UPCOMING FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

IFR CEILING HAVE ENDED AT KLBF...WHICH WERE MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 5SM
TSRA AT KVTN FROM 23Z-03Z AND A PROB30 FOR KLBF FROM 01Z-05Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG






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