Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
FXUS63 KLBF 250624 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
124 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
The latest NAM12, GFS and HRRR solutions develop some convection
into the Panhandle and western Nebraska this evening, lifting it
to the east and northeast overnight. Main area of precipitation
should track as far south as the the I80 corridor. The mention of
thunder maintained overnight mainly near and south of highway 2.
Looking at instability, lifted indices, both surface based and
elevated, were slightly negative within this area. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 30s in the north to mid 40s south.
On Tuesday, much cooler with rain showers likely east of Cody
through Broken Bow. Still a chance for isolated thunder south of
highway 2 until 10 am cdt. Still a chance for showers for western
sandhills and southwest with chances decreasing through the day.
Models have been fairly consistent in tracking a 500 mb low center
from northeast Wyoming across South Dakota. Cold air aloft will
push southward Tuesday afternoon, with highs nudged colder due to
influence of stratus from only the low to mid 40s north central to
the mid 50s southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
A 20 to 30 percent chance for lingering showers Tuesday evening. 850
mb temperatures fall to 0 to -5 degrees Celsius. Lingering light
rain may mix or change to wet snow n the north central, but
precipitation by this point will be very light and no accumulation
is expected. Some clearing late to allow lows to fall below
freezing from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Wednesday will be a breezy and continued chilly day. Northwest winds
of 15 to 25 mph are expected. 850 mb temperatures do recover to
around 8C across southwest Nebraska by afternoon, but remain below
zero all day across the northeast portion of the forecast area.
Some sun will help highs climb into the 50s across southwest
Nebraska, but across north central Nebraska, lingering clouds and
colder air aloft will limit highs to the upper 40s.
The next chance for showers will arrive Thursday afternoon,
continuing Thursday night and Friday. This will be in response to
an upper trough pushing into the Central Plains. Likely pops most
areas during this timeframe. With colder air aloft, and
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s in the northwest,
some snow may mix in. Highs Friday only in the 40s to low 50s.
For Friday night through Saturday night, there will be a
continued chance for rain showers, and even a chance for snow
showers on the backside of the system Saturday night. Operational
models have been struggling with the evolution of this system.
Model consensus is for the main system to track from Colorado and
Kansas into central and eastern Nebraska, where the higher chances
to reside. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s Saturday, moderating to
the lower 50s Sunday, and upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday, as
northwest flow still influences the region.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Latest surface plot shows VFR conditions across western and
north central NEB. Meanwhile, latest radar loop shows returns
upstream over northeast CO and the NEB Panhandle indicative of
showers moving northeastward into the local forecast area, also
showers are moving east across eastern WY. Rainfall amounts have
been light. Showers expected across much of western NEB and the
Sandhills overnight. Confidence in thunder is low overnight thus no
mention in TAFs.
Ceilings are expected to deteriorate over the small hours into early
morning tomorrow to MVFR-IFR with lower ceilings expected across the
Sandhills and north. Tomorrow, sub-VFR ceilings are expected to
prevail for the most part with improvement to low-end VFR (less than
7 kft) expected to be confined to portions of southwest NEB.
Otherwise, winds increasing tomorrow and becoming more northerly
with peak gusts 20-25 kts in the afternoon/evening.