Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 260407 AAC
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1107 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Weather conditions have relaxed. The Heat Advisory and Red Flag
Warning can be allowed to expire at 8 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A cold front will make it`s way south into northwest Nebraska this
evening, with the front through most of the forecast area of
western and north central Nebraska by Wednesday morning. Several
factors point toward a decent chance for thunderstorms tonight as
the front crosses. 1) Moisture continues to increase this
afternoon, with precipitable water values rising to over 1.5
inches prior to convective development. 2) Strong CAPE has
developed across most of the area and will linger into this
evening. 3) Mid level warm air advection and a 40kt southerly low
level jet will help maintain convection through most of tonight.
Limiting factor for severe storms late this afternoon and early
evening will be the lack of the stronger winds aloft, but a speed
max will cross the area mid to late evening tonight, and mid level
winds will increase to around 40kt or so. This will likely aid in
convection continuing through the night into the first half of
Wednesday. Many areas of western and north central Nebraska are of
course very dry, nevertheless some training of storms is possible
as the front will be slow moving. This could lead to some locally
heavy rain amounts, but flooding is unlikely due to the dry
conditions.

Cloudy skies and scattered showers will linger through Wednesday
morning. Some sunbreaks should develop by afternoon as the mid
levels dry out some. The big story will be the much cooler
temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Western CONUS ridge will be in process of building Wednesday into
Wednesday night and will extend from the Four Corners region-
Southern Plains into the western Canadian Prairies at the start
of the period. The ridge will continue to build through Friday,
though anchored more over the Four Corners region into the Norther
Plains as it retrogrades westward. Dry conditions are anticipated
Thursday-Thursday night as surface high pressure moves into the
Upper Midwest with a surface ridge extending south into the
Central Plains by Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, next chance for
precipitation is Friday afternoon-Friday night with isolated-
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible as an embedded
shortwave trough moves through. Highs are anticipated to be near
seasonal normal values both Thursday and Friday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build across the western
CONUS, over the northern Intermountain West and Great Basin, this
weekend and Monday. In general, a slight warming trend is
anticipated into the new work week with temperatures returning
into the upper 80s/around 90 Sunday and Monday. The western CONUS
ridge looks likely then to persist through early next week/through
Tuesday. Isolated/slight chances PoPs exist for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Thunderstorms across Ncnt/Wrn Nebraska are expected to spread
east tonight and build south. The thermal ridge at 700mb, 13C per
KLBF upper air sounding, appears to be weakening supporting
thunderstorms is all areas.

Storm activity is expected to continue Wednesday morning east of
highway 83. This activity should exit Ncntl Nebraska 18z-20z
Wednesday. MVFR cigs are expected along and west of highway
83/north of highway 2 Wednesday morning. VFR cigs are expected in
this region after 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Relative humidity currently around 20 to 35 percent across the Red
Flag warning area with winds mainly to 20 mph. A Red Flag Warning
is in place for this condition with no changes made at this time.
Winds expected to see a slight increase, with gusts to 25 MPH,
this afternoon. Also, thunderstorms anticipated across northwest
and northern NEB. Thus critical fire weather conditions are expected
late this afternoon and early this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...CDC


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