Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 031121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND RECENT SNOW MELT LOCATIONS TO SEE VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE...OR LESS. SO FAR VSBY HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WHICH TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK


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