Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221208 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
708 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Massive subsidence over the central conus under upper ridge with
very dry air as seen in IR imagery. 850mb temperatures increase
over western Nebraska today over yesterdays. Highs in the low 70s
yesterday will give way to mid to upper 70s to around 80 today
with clear skies. A deepening surface low over Montana early this
morning will move into the northern plains today with
strengthening southwest flow across western Nebraska. Southwest
winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 expected through
the Sandhills.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Upper level ridging will dominate the synoptic pattern the next
several days across the central portions of the United States. A
midweek shortwave will dampen the ridging for a short time, with
the possibility of a few showers or even a thunderstorm Tuesday
into Tuesday night. After the shortwave passes, the upper ridging
will quickly rebuild across the Rockies, with potentially very
warm air aloft moving east into the area by Friday.

How this shakes out temperatures wise, continued above normal for
at least the next week. Expect highs of 68 to 75 the next several
days across southwest Nebraska, with 60s across north central
Nebraska. As mentioned will watch the end of the week for a warm
up, possibly nearing 80 degrees across western Nebraska by
Friday. This has support from the latest operational ECMWF and
CFS climate model.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Clear skies over western Nebraska today with winds being the main
concern for aviation. Surface low pressure moving into South
Dakota this afternoon will tighten the pressure gradient and
strengthen southwest winds over northern Nebraska to 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to around 35 mph through the afternoon. Winds will
decouple this evening and become light and variable.


Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Very dry airmass over head with full sun today and temperatures
will rise into the upper 70s to around 80 over most of western
Nebraska. Minimum relative humidity will fall into the low to
upper teens and 20 percent from Broken Bow to Oneill. Southwest
winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 expected through the
Sandhills. Have had reports of several fires over western Nebraska
the last several days. Fuels are ready for large growth fires and
with increased activity in the fields have upgraded and expanded
the fire weather watch to red flag warning this afternoon.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209.



LONG TERM...Taylor
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