000
FXUS63 KLBF 222030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures through Friday with highs in the 60s to
  lower 70s.

- Unsettled weather expected Thursday through Sunday with the
  main bouts of rain expected Thursday night into Friday and
  Saturday night into Sunday. The severe threat remains
  uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Tonight...The latest CAMs suggests the development of light rain
showers mainly along and to the north and south of Hwy 2. Any
rainfall will be very light, and mostly in the form of virga
due to drier air working southward overnight. In addition,
another weak cold front will reach northern Nebraska late
tonight. Overnight temperatures fall into the upper 30s to lower
40s.

Tuesday...The cold front will quickly sweep through western
Nebraska during the morning, with highs slightly cooler from
around 60 north central to the mid 60s southwest and central
Nebraska. Skies become mostly sunny as northwest winds increase
to 20 to 30 mph across the east and 10 to 20 mph west.

Tuesday night...A weak upper level shortwave exiting southeast
Wyoming and northern Colorado will bring a chance for
precipitation across the southeast panhandle into west central
and southwest Nebraska. POPs remain low at 20 to 30 percent with
limited moisture and weak omega shown in the H85 to H7 layer.
Low temperatures coolest across the east in the mid 30s in
closer proximity to the surface high, to he the upper 30s to
near 40 west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

On Wednesday, the upper flow will remain fairly zonal as mid level
moisture and weak lift remains present into the afternoon. A slight
chance for rain showers through the day. Southerly winds increase to
20 to 30 mph. Highs will be coolest in the mid 60s central and east
to around 70 far west and southwest.

Upper level ridging will build back into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday with an upper level trough moving across the Desert
Southwest into the Four Corners Region. Will see increasing POPs
during this time, as the upper flow becomes southwesterly aloft and
surface dewpoints increase into the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday.

As the upper level trough reaches the Front Range late Thursday
afternoon, strong lee-cyclogenesis will occur across eastern
Colorado, driven by strong mid-level height falls and upper-level
divergence under the left exit region of a 300mb jet streak
positioned across New Mexico into Kansas. This will bring
likely to categorical POPs Thursday night into Friday as an
upper trough and closed low crosses the region. Another upper
trough and closed low will cross the region Saturday night into
Sunday. There remains some spread amongst models on the track
and timing of these systems, some breaks in the precipitation
expected. Confidence continues to grow on the potential for
scattered to widespread wetting rains during this period. NBM
Probabilities indicate at least a 70% chance for .25"+ liquid
equivalent precipitation across much of western and north
central Nebraska Thursday night into Friday, and at least a 40%
chance for .25"+ liquid equivalent precipitation Saturday night
into Sunday. While the severe threat remains uncertain at this
time, embedded thunderstorms appear possible which would result
in locally heavy rainfall. WPC 7 Day precipitation favors the
highest amounts across the panhandle and northwest Sandhills due
to the predicted track of the closed low(s). Will continue to
monitor this timeframe as specific details become more clear
with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through Tuesday morning.
Skies remain mostly clear with only increasing high clouds expected
by late Tuesday morning. Winds become strong on Tuesday across
northern Nebraska with northwest gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. A few
light rain showers could be possible tonight, but confidence remains
too low to put it in the forecast at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik