Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220529 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA. TROUGH INTO EASTERN CONUS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAVE MOVING
UP EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ATOP THE CWA TO
VEER TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH.  THE EASTWARD ADVANCING HIGH
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL WARM LOWS ON MONDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR WEST.  ATTM...THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE LOW 50S ARE FORECAST.
THE COOLEST READINGS TO REMAIN OVER OUR EAST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40 RANGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR.  THESE VALUES ARE A RESULT OF A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AVAILABLE BC/REGULAR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
NUDGED SLIGHTLY FROM THERE.  MONDAY...TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO
GIVE WAY TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE PROSPECTS OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE SHORTER RANGE DETERMINISTIC CONTINUE TO
PROG A GENERAL INCREASE IN PWATS WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE AND INCH
BY MID AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH SUCH THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THE RAIN CHANCES WERE
DELAYED AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT.  IN ADDITION TO SLOWING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO WORD THUNDER CHANCES AS ISOLATED AS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE DETERMINISTIC DATA REVEALS LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS THE ONSET OF CLOUDS AND QPF WILL BE DELAYED
SOMEWHAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS BACKING OFF SOME WITH TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FAR AS TIMING AND
DURATION. IN THE MID TERM UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY EVENING WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ONGOING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA.
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS
WILL ENHANCE AND EXPAND CONVECTION. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WITH
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RETURN UPGLIDE FLOW WILL HELP TO FURTHER
ENHANCE LIFT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TD`S
INCREASE FROM 40S INTO UPPER 50S WITH PWS FROM 0.8 MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH 1.3 TUESDAY MORNING...A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 50S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AND CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST. SECOND
WAVE TO DRIVE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FIRING TO THE WEST AND
THEN MOVING EAST OVER NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP AND IN THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR. AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EXPLICIT NEAR TERM MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
COMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 22Z WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS LOW SO...FOR THE
TIME BEING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
FOR LBF OR VTN. ALSO...SINCE STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS NOT INDICATING
INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...WE WILL KEEP CEILING AT OR
ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 3SM FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC






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