Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202325
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND 3SM OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...BBW AND ANW AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING LBF AND OGA...VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 3SM AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1SM IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BUT...AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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