Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 192131
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MID MISS RVR VALLEY THE TRAILS NW ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE ON
THE COOL /NW/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 20S
ACROSS N CENTRAL EVEN THOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSIST. GENERALLY
30S NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH THE CLOUDS...WITH 40S CLOSE TO 50 IN
THE SUN TO THE SW OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...CENTER WEST OF THE ROCKIES...AS A NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING TOWARDS THE PAC NW STATES. ALSO THERE IS THE
PERSISTENT LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE STALLING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO MAYBE
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
/CLOUDS/ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SO STRATUS IS EXPECTED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE FORECAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE COVERAGE AND
VISIBILITY REDUCTION OF THE FOG AND WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG WITH NO
ICE ACCUMULATION AS THIS TIME...AS VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 3
TO 5 MILE RANGE ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS.

TOMORROW THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED...20S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
TO UPPER 40S IN THE SW. A BAND OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTENCE
AND THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS TIME
OF YEAR IT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING FREEZING FOG OR DRIZZLE
IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SIGNALING EITHER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
WIND AND VERTICAL MOTION ARE INDICATING LITTLE OR NO UPWARD MOTION.
THAT WOULD FIT BETTER WITH FOG. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MIXED MOIST LAYER THAN IS THE NAM. AND THAT
WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE. THE IMPACTS OF EITHER FREEZING
FOG OR DRIZZLE ARE VERY SIMILAR SO...IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY
BETWEEN FORECASTS...WE WILL LEAVE IT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

A FRONT COMING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A TRAILING FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-
RELATIVE LIFT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT NOT EXTREMELY COLD. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT...SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A
BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS DOES IMPACT KLBF
WHILE KVTN IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND MAY GO IN AN
OUT OF THE LOWER CIGS...THUS FORECAST FOR KVTN HAS A TEMPO EARLY
AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENT IF THE BAND SHIFTS BACK
EAST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS WESTERN NEB...AND LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON CIGS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN OR NEAR BOTH KVTN AND KLBF INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A BREAK
THIS EVENING...AND DID NOT WANT TO JUST BLANKET THE TAF SITE YET.
TOWARDS MORNING THE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT LEAST FOR
KLBF...AND THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG. LESS CONFIDENCE ACROSS
KVTN AND ONLY INCLUDED A SCT LOWER CIG AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK





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