Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 290854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER






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