Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160444
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1144 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO TX...RESULTING IN A CHILLY MID APRIL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE CWA...MOST OBS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAN/N CENTRAL
MONTANA BORDER...WITH ONE TAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW...AND A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MT AND S DAKOTA...WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY MORNING. MOISTURE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA WHERE LOWEST COND PRES DEF LOCATED IN THE 295K SURFACE.
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE OPTED
FOR ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
MODELS PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF AND AGREE AMOUNTS NOT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. ALSO GOING TO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME GUSTY.

SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER A
BRIEF RISE OF TEMPS IN THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH. A
CHILLY MID APRIL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...50S SOUTH. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN
IS IF TEMPS HOLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEBR FROM
WEAK INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH....BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH. REGARDING HIGH
THURSDAY...TRENDED UP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TO NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR
AND NEAR 45 AT ONL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO KANSAS AND NEBR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...AND DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS
EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
FA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RAISE TO THE 60S FRIDAY. MAINLY
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT
ALSO LOOK LIKE ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 2000 FT AGL WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP
TO 3 TO 5 SM IN ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 KTS. SOME GUSTS MAY ECLIPSE 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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