Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB WILL MOVE EAST A BIT THIS MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 AND
LIFT TO VFR 18Z-19Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

LATE TONIGHT...THE SREF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...PERHAPS BETWEEN KANW-KONL
AND KBBW WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL WASHOUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC






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