Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200500 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS ON RADAR WITH
BACKSIDE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOWERED POPS BUT DID NOT REMOVE
ALTOGETHER. TEMPERATURES RISING GRADUALLY AFTER PRECIP STOPPED SO
RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. KEPT SNOW IN THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND A MIX INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS.
HEAVIER RAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE HIGHER POPS
RETAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AS OF 20Z A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PIVOTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
300K MTV HAS SHOWN A DIRECT MOISTURE FETCH FROM GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES WITHIN AND NEAR THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF FGEN FOCUSED BETWEEN H85 AND H75 WHERE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR AN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF AN OGALLALA
TO VALENTINE LINE FOR SNOW FLAKES TONIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
PTYPE OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS. THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE 1-2 INCHES BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTIES...BUT MOST SPOTS WILL SEE GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. FURTHER EAST FROM NORTH PLATTE THROUGH O`NEILL...TEMPS
COOL JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW WITH 0-3 KM
COLUMN MAX WET BULB TEMPS NEAR ZERO. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT SATURATION ABOVE -10C AND REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD LAYER. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO GENERATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SNOWFALL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST GRIDS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OGA-VTN LINE.

DESPITE TEMPS THE SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT...WILL
FOREGO ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL SWITCH OVER TO RAIN AS NEAR SFC
TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW...GRADUALLY
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST OF HWY 83
AND NORTH OF I80. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARMUP THURSDAY TO 60 TO 65 MOST AREAS AS A
TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN NEBR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S. AS AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
SRN CALIFORNIA. FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INDICATED ON THE
300K SFC FROM THE SRN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS A LEAD
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION...CONTINUED CHC POPS ACROSS THE SERN
PNHDL AND SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER HIGHS ONLY NEAR 55 WEST TO 65 FAR NORTHEAST.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES FRO NRN AZ INTO NERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY POPS TO HOLD AROUND 50 PERCENT AS AN AMPLIFIED SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION.
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT DIFFER AS THE 12Z GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SB CAPES REACH 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6KM
SHEAR ADEQUATE AT 30 TO 35 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER LOW FILLS AND LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS CHANCES MAINLY SLIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL AND A SUSTAINED
WARMUP SHOULD BEGIN FOR NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT. CURRENT FCST IS FOR A BLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. SIMILAR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE IN. MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDE SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SOME AREAS OF SNOW OVER NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND THEN RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER FROM
KVTN TO KEAR TO KCNK AND NORTH. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FLOODING CONTINUES ON PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...HOWEVER RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO STEADILY
RECEDE OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. LATEST FORECAST HAS FLOWS ON
THE RIVER SLOWLY FALLING OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH PLATTER RIVER AT ROSCOE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...WITH DOWNSTREAM GAUGES IN LINCOLN COUNTY HOLDING NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME.

MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
AND PLATTE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE AN IMMEDIATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS...THE
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR LOCAL FLOOD MITIGATION EFFORTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN





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