Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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306
FXUS63 KLBF 102329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MILD AIR HAS PUSHED INTO ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS RETREATED EAST...ALL
THE WAY TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER
NON SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE H5 PATTERN TODAY REMAINED
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...AND HAS SHIFTED 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER EAST
TDY. RIDGING EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA...NORTH INTO SRN YUKON WHILE
A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE...A TIGHT NWRLY H5 GRADIENT WAS NOTED AND
EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DECENT SNOW
MELT. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SW INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CREATE SOME CONCERNS FOR TEMPS...AS WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT AND COOL TEMPS TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MODEL BLEND THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WEST AND SNOW FREE AREAS TO WARM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO NEAR 50. LIKELY GOING TO HOLD IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 IN THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE FOLLOWING THE MEANDERING FRONT. SOME
SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT IN THE BL COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT N
CENTRAL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY
WORDING. ELSEWHERE...THE ADDED MOISTURE IN THE BL FROM THE SNOW MELT
SHOULD CREATE A RICH ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG. DEW PTS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MID TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF FORECAST
CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE MID RANGE. THE FIRST IS
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
SNOW THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT IN BOYD AND
NERN HOLT COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO PLACE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE LOWS TRACK...THEN QUICKLY SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SERN NEBRASKA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...FORCING THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGHS WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS
THE FRONTAL TIMING IS NOW 6 TO 12 HRS EARLIER THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED WITH YESTERDAY/S MODEL SOLNS. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
STUCK IN THE 20S AND 30S. ON FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TEMPORARILY BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIFT EAST OVER THE FRONT AS A H750 WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE AND
FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES FROM MERRIMAN TO HAYES CENTER. HOWEVER...WEST
OF THIS LINE...FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EAST
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE FZDZ THREAT WILL LIE PRIMARILY EAST OF A
AINSWORTH TO TAYLOR LINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE INHERITED FCST DID HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT
PCPN ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND THIS
WAS RETAINED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND AND THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MISISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN...THEN NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW...AS FORCING IS WEAK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. AFTER SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS TRANSITIONING FROM THE 40S MONDAY...TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY...THEN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO INFILTRATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED KIEN-KTIF-KBBW. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST
TO EAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER LOW CIGS COULD LAST ALL DAY NEAR KONL-
KANW AND PERHAPS KVTN.

THE RAP MODEL SEEMED THE MOST RATIONAL. THE NAM AND SREF WERE TOO
AGRESSIVE...THE GFS WAS THE LEAST. THE RAP AND ECM MODELS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC



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