Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND STRATUS ARE BUILDING THROUGH THE NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL ADVANCE TO A KIEN-KTIF-KBBW LINE THIS
MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FCST
FOLLOWS THE COOLER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WARMER NUMBERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE ARW
SOLNS...WHICH KEEP THE STRATUS IN THE LONGEST...WERE VERY COOL
WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH AND 60S SOUTH
WHERE NO STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS COULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA. THE ARW SHOWS THIS QUITE
CLEARLY BUT THE NAM...GFS...ECM AND GEM DO NOT. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE AIR MASS TO
BECOME MORE SUBSIDENT AND STABLE COINCIDING WITH LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WOULD HELP
VERTICAL MIXING AND DISPERSE MOISTURE FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE THE ARCTIC HIGH MAINTAINS A SHALLOW
PROFILE IT WOULD TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS SUGGESTED
BY THE COOLER ARW SOLNS. THE STRATUS FORECAST TONIGHT HINGES ON
VERTICAL MIXING AND DISPERSAL OF TRAPPED MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY THE
OTHER MODELS AND THIS SHOULD BECOME OBVIOUS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE ON SAT
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEB...WHILE CLOSER TO 60 ACROSS
N CENTRAL. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AS SOME MIXING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO LOCALLY MID 70S.
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT...THUS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE RIDGE QUICKLY REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE 70 FOR MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY...THEN WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...AS EARLY AS WED
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO
THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND WILL BE THE REASON TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUDS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT /40S/ AND HIGHS
HOLDING IN THE 60S...WHICH IS SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AND TRANSLATE EAST THIS MORNING.
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY 18Z-20Z.

SOME MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN 06Z-09Z TONIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST
AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






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