753
FXUS64 KOHX 011740
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

It`s a showery day across the mid state. It`s rather cool with temps
in the 60s. A mildly unsettled pattern appears to be ahead through
the short term period. Having said that, today appears to be the
most active of the days as a marginal risk is currently in place.
There does appear to be some reasonable shear although capes are
near zero right now. As activity decreases some by afternoon
instability could pick up a bit with perhaps some storms developing
later. I would not worry too much about it at this point.

Again, the upcoming pattern looks mildly unsettled.  A series of
weak shortwaves will traverse the area through Monday night. Pops
however will continue to run on the low side after today. Only
modest instability will pair with weak shear to keep us in the
general risk of storms. The 35KT mags at 850 mb today will drop to
near 10 kts for the next 2 afternoons. Capes will rise to near 1500
j/kg the next two afternoons. Forcing/organization is weak on Sunday
with micro ridging attempting to surface. A little higher with the
GFS pops on Monday afternoon with shortwave proximity improving. NBM
not biting on this, however, as the Euro deflects from this theme as
well. At any rate, qpf totals through Monday night look like up to 1
1/2 inches far west to 1/2 inch east.

For the near term temps, it will be just a touch on the warm side
with lows mid 60s and highs mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

In the extended forecast, a stronger frontal system and associated
shortwave is slated to push through on Wednesday afternoon. Thus, we
will see our shower and tstm chances increase by mid week. Good
instability is showing up but with just weak to moderate shear. The
system is not synoptically well formed and strong organization is
isolated. No outlook for now. Drier air will work in behind the
system for the end of the week.

For the extended temps, it will continue to run a degree or two
above normal until the end of the week. At that time, we will cool
down to a little below normal. GFS appears to be a little overly
aggressive with the troughing. Will lean toward the Euro/NBM
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A line of moderately heavy rain is pushing through Middle
Tennessee right now, bringing with it MVFR cigs and lowered vis
upon passage. Once this line clears, pop-up thunderstorms are
possible through the afternoon, but coverage looks to be widely
scattered. MVFR to IFR cigs will likely hang around into the
overnight hours as well as more chances for showers.

Winds remain southerly and breezy, with sustained speeds around 10
kts and gusts between 20-25 kts. Wind speeds will come down later
tonight sometime after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  85  67  87 /  60  30  10  20
Clarksville    66  83  64  86 /  50  10  10  20
Crossville     58  76  60  81 /  60  50  20  10
Columbia       65  84  64  86 /  60  20  10  20
Cookeville     62  78  62  83 /  60  50  10  10
Jamestown      59  76  61  82 /  70  60  20  10
Lawrenceburg   65  83  64  86 /  60  20  10  20
Murfreesboro   65  84  64  87 /  50  30  10  20
Waverly        65  84  64  86 /  50  10  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Baggett