Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290020
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
820 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the
eastern Great Lakes region through Saturday morning, supporting
continued cool and dry weather. Low pressure will then move
across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early
Sunday, supporting a chance of some rain and wet snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet night on tap across the region as surface high pressure
centered over the Gulf Coast states crests northward across the
Great Lakes. A wealth of high cloud cover associated with a low
pressure system along the East Coast will persist across the
eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, though skies should stay
mostly clear back across western NY. Low temps will be in the
low 30s and upper 20s across the forecast area, coldest across
the higher terrain areas of the Southern Tier and North Country.

Broad, increasingly negatively tilted 500H troughing will shift east
of the region Friday and Friday night as surface high pressure
continues to build over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Some
weak shortwave energy and cold advection at 850H in the wake of the
primary trough axis combined with daytime heating will likely cause
additional low cloud cover to develop through the course of the day
Friday, with stable lake shadows keeping areas across the western
Southern Tier and along the southern shore of Lake Ontario a bit
sunnier. Some guidance is indicating some light QPF inland from the
lake breeze boundary across the Finger Lakes region, though with
increasing subsidence from the high to the west thinking this is
likely overdone. The pressure gradient across the region between
this high pressure and the deepening low climbing north into the
Canadian Maritimes will increase on Friday, leading to a breezy day
with widespread gusts of 20-30mph. Winds should then gradually
subside Friday night with nocturnal stability developing after
sundown.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain a touch on the cool side for
late March Friday and Friday night with highs in the upper 30s and
low 40s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showery conditions for the middle portion of the weekend/short
term forecast period. A weakening shortwave trough and sfc low
will track across the region Saturday afternoon causing showers
to move into the area, mainly south of Lake Ontario. As the
batch of showers tracks into the area, weakening of the sfc low
and trough with eastward progression will start to result in
decreasing density of the shower coverage over the region. Whats
left with this batch of showers will track southeast away from
the forecast area later Saturday evening. A second shortwave
trough will track west to east just north of Lake Ontario
Saturday night. Showers will increase some from the northwest to
the southeast, especially for the north country where the
trough will be closest to. Showers over the eastern portions of
the forecast area should be minimal. This will be in part due to
moisture with this next shortwave will be on the lower side
with PWats generally around a third of an inch and the trough
will be in more of a weakening stage during this time. Rainfall
amounts should range from a few hundredths of an inch near the
south shore of Lake Ontario to around a tenth of an inch near
the NY/PA border. Temperatures should be just cool enough for
rain showers to mix with or change to snow for Saturday night,
mainly across the higher terrain.

Temperatures for the period should be near to a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday an elongated and increasingly positively-tilted upper
level trough will extend from the Rockies across the northern Great
Plains...with lee-side surface cyclogenesis supporting the continued
development of a broad surface low over the central and southern
Plains states. Northeast of this low...a tight low-level baroclinic
zone will extend eastward across the Ohio Valley...with one or more
weak disturbances rippling east along this feature and possibly
bringing the chance of a few light showers to western New York. With
continued poor model agreement in the positioning of the frontal
zone and consequently the track of any disturbances riding eastward
along it...have elected to keep PoPs for Monday confined to the low
chance range for now. Otherwise Monday looks to offer a milder than
normal start to the month of April...with highs mostly ranging
through the 50s.

After that the above mentioned upper trough will get sheared
apart...with the bulk of its energy ejecting northeastward across
the Plains states into the Great Lakes and Northeast...where this
looks to engage in a complex interaction with northern stream energy
dropping southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter
portions of the week. The corresponding surface low will continue to
develop and track northeastward toward our area Monday night and
Tuesday...then will pass somewhere across our region between Tuesday
night and Wednesday...before redeveloping off the New England
coastline Thursday. This would result in a likelihood of fairly
widespread precipitation developing across our area between later
Monday night and Tuesday...then lingering through Wednesday before
gradually tapering off thereafter.

As has been the case so far with this system...the various guidance
packages continue to exhibit differences in how the two supporting
streams of energy may interact...which then leads to differences in
the overall strength and track of the low and consequently what
precipitation types we might ultimately expect and when. A current
model consensus suggests that temps should remain warm enough to
support primarily rain through at least the first part of Tuesday
night...with a little snow then possibly mixing in across the higher
terrain later on in the night. More rain and possible higher
elevation wet snow then looks to follow for Wednesday...before
colder air wrapping in behind the system potentially brings about a
more general accumulating wet snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Meanwhile temperatures should gradually cool through the
period...with slightly above average highs on Tuesday giving way to
somewhat below average readings for both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle as surface
high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region.

Skies will remain mostly clear across western NY overnight tonight.
A wealth of high cloud cover will persist across the eastern Lake
Ontario region through the pre-dawn hours as a low pressure system
climbs up the East Coast.

Low clouds will expand in coverage across the forecast area through
the course of the day Friday as weak cold air advection aloft
combines with diurnal heating and lake breeze influences. Cigs are
expected to be AOB 4k feet across the TAF sites, though may approach
MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger
Lakes, and North Country. Stable lake shadows should keep areas
along the southern shore of Lake Ontario (possibly as far south
as KROC/KIAG) and in the western Southern Tier (KJHW) clearer.

A tightening pressure gradient across the region will lead to
widespread WNW wind gusts of 20-25kts Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of rain and snow showers,
improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain.
Tuesday...MVFR with the likelihood of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
A stiff southwest breeze across the region this evening will slowly
shift northwesterly overnight. This will maintain a chop across the
waters on both lakes, though winds and waves are expected to remain
below SCA criteria through at least tonight.

A ridge of high pressure will crest over the Great Lakes Friday into
Saturday as low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes and
deepens. This will cause the pressure gradient across the eastern
Great Lakes to increase as winds back to the WSW, resulting in SCA
conditions across the nearshore waters of both lakes into Friday
night. Wind speeds and wave heights will likely be greatest across
central and eastern Lake Ontario. Have held off on issuing any
headlines for Lake Erie with this update as conditions on the waters
will be more marginal and likely not approach SCA criteria until the
afternoon hours Friday.

Winds and waves will subside on both lakes late Friday night and
through the day Saturday as the surface high moves directly overhead.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP


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