National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 160632
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
232 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic will extend westward
across or just to the North of SE GA/NE FL region through tonight
with a warm South to Southeast steering flow that will continue
above normal temps. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as periods
of mainly thin high cirrus will continue to stream across the
region over the top of the large high pressure ridge to the west
of the region. Highs into the mid/upper 80s over inland areas with
lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast as the East Coast sea breeze
will push well inland with SE surface winds increasing to 10-15G20
mph behind the sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Periods of
high cloudiness will continue tonight with SE winds decreasing to
5 mph or less, combined with low temps around 60F and increased
low level moisture from the onshore flow should lead to some
patchy/areas of fog formation mostly likely along the
I-95/US17/US301 corridors towards sunrise Wednesday morning, could
be some locally dense fog in some spots, but amount of any
significant fog formation will depend on the coverage/thickness of
high cloud cover during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday, some patchy to areas of fog east of highway 301 will
lift by mid morning as temperatures warm quickly through the 70s
after starting around 60. The low level ridge will nudge eastward
closer to Bermuda while mid level ridging aloft extending across
Florida from the southern Gulf of Mexico will deflect an eastbound
shortwave trough trailing from the upper Midwest into the mid MS
valley to our north late in the day into Wednesday night. The
surface high pressure ridge axis will extend from the center of
the high near Bermuda WSW into NE FL and cause the local low level
flow to turn more southerly. This will allow Atlantic seabreeze
to move inland past US 17 towards highway 301 corridor while the
Gulf coast seabreeze moves inland just past I-75 by late afternoon
with breezes yielding 10-15 mph winds from the southeast and the
southwest directions, respectfully. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s inland and near 80 at the coast.

Wednesday night, southwest flow above the surface will favor some
patchy fog developing mainly just west of our area from the Gulf
coast under increasing mid and high level cloud cover. Lows will
be in the lower 60s inland and mid 60s at the coast.

Thursday, low level ridging will shift back over northern FL in
the morning and then move into the NE Gulf of Mexico through the
day as a mid level shortwave impulse moves east off the southeast
coast and supports a quick moving weak cold front that will pass
just north of the area to the Carolina coast. This will allow the
day to begin with initially mostly cloudy skies as mid level clouds
linger, but no rain expected as lower atmosphere stays too dry
from influence of the low level ridge. The low level flow pattern
will become west southwesterly with a pinned Atlantic seabreeze
confined to the beachfront communities. Highs therefore will be
warmer Thursday with upper 80s to around 90 degree readings east
of highway 301 to I-95 corridor while the immediate coast is a
bit less warm in the low to mid 80s from the Atlantic seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Friday, light westerly low level flow relaxes some compared to
Thursday with low level ridging just to the south over central
and southern FL with light westerly winds inland and the Atlantic
seabreeze gaining a little more ground inland to I-95. Keeping
silent pops over our area as showers stay north of the Altamaha
due to subsidence under the ridge capping development of showers
or thunderstorms. Hot readings expected as highs reach the low 90s
along and west of I-95 with upper 80s along the Altamaha basin and
mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday, low level ridge will move eastward away from the FL
peninsula and allow for a few showers and an isolated T`storm to
form over SE GA in the afternoon where greater moisture increases
ahead of the upstream cold front entering the deep south. Highs
stay hot in the low 90s inland and mid 80s coast. Lows will be
in the mid 60s.

Sunday, the cold front will sink towards our area with isolated to
scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms for most of the
area. Slightly more clouds Sunday compared to Saturday will help
lower highs to the upper 80s to around 90 and mid 80s at the
beaches. Lows will again be in the mid 60s.

Monday, the cold front will sink through NE FL in the afternoon
and the combination of moisture ahead of the boundary, instability
from cooler mid level temperatures, and lift from convergence along
the cold front will generate scattered showers and T`storms. Highs
will be cooler as winds turn about from the southwesterly to
northerly with cooler highs in the mid to upper 70s over SE GA and
the low to mid 80s over NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

No major changes from previous forecast as only expect periods of
high cirrus clouds through the period with light winds becoming SE
9-12 knots this afternoon in the 16-19Z time frame. Have kept in
the mention of some typical MVFR fog early this morning at VQQ in
the 07-11Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure ridge axis across or just north of the local waters
will continue a South to Southeast flow through Thursday with
speeds at 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft. Weak frontal boundary will
push through the SE US Thursday Night and stall just north of the
waters Friday and Saturday with a weak Southwest flow expected,
along with local Southeast to South sea breezes near the Atlantic
Coast. No headlines expected through the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today and Wednesday as
onshore sea breeze expected during the afternoon hours with
surf/breakers around 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  58  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  79  63  78  66 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  87  60  86  65 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  82  61  83  64 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  89  58  88  64 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  89  58  88  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$