Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
862 FXZS60 NSTU 040122 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 222 PM SST Fri May 3 2024 .Short term... As of this morning and early afternoon, satellite imagery shows most of the rainfall that would cause flash flooding has remained to the north and east of American Samoa. Therefore, the Flood Watch expired this morning. However, the atmosphere over the territory is unstable with above average moisture along the lower and middle levels. This will continue to create on and off showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms through the overnight hours and Saturday. Winds will remain from the northeast up to 15 mph, but may have stronger wind gusts in periods of rainfall. By Saturday evening and Sunday, a low pressure system will develop within the trough and move southward to squeeze between two high pressure systems to the southeast and southwest. This may create enough moisture and instability to produce flash flooding over American Samoa during this time. We will continue to monitor this timeframe and will likely issue a Flood Watch if the forecasted weather pattern continues to hold. Winds are forecast to become northerly, but remaining up to 15 mph with the exception of near localized thunderstorms. .Long term... The aforementioned weather pattern of above average rainfall is forecast to continue through Monday. Easterly flow would reduce the rainfall to scattered showers by midweek. However, we will track the placement of a high pressure system well to the southwest as it may push a trough over the region again during this time through the end of the week. && .Marine... The latest information from the altimetry data of a recent POES satellite pass over shows seas around 8 feet throughout the coastal waters region. Winds continue to decrease as it becomes northeasterly, but gusty winds may occur in localized thunderstorms and waves will remain choppy through the weekend and into early next week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ LaPlante