Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
302
FNUS73 KLBF 021214
FWSLBF
Spot Forecast for WTREX Niobrara Hazel Rx Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service North Platte NE
714 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact the NWS North Platte office at 308-532-0921 (or
at 1-800-603-3562) if you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
There is an outside chance for an isolated shower at the burn site later
this morning but the chance for wetting rainfall is quite small. Of greater
concern will be winds that will be ramping up quickly as clouds diminish and
diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer. Expect wind gusts of 30 to 35mph by
late this morning through this afternoon. There are also indications that by
late in the day the mixed layer will become quite deep and capable of tapping
stronger winds aloft. Gusts at or above 40mph are within the scope of possible
solutions, but will indicate most likely values for gusts with a slight shade
toward potential higher values in this SPOT.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around
26 mph shifting to the west 10 to 17 mph with
gusts to around 36 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 22
mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph increasing to 18 to 26 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76 72 64 65 48 36 23 28 28 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 48 51 54 57 57 59 61 61 62
RH..............83 83 71 59 49 45 37 32 29 27
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W W NW NW W W NW
20 FT wind spd..7 9 10 13 15 17 16 16 15 15
20 FT wind gust.12 20 28 36 35 33 33 35 35 36
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW W W W W NW NW W W NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.10 16 20 22 21 20 20 21 21 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 2.0 3.2 4.1 5.4 7.0 8.2 9.2 9.7
Transp wind dir.SW W W NW NW NW W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 13 18 24 25 26 26 26 26 25
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to
around 33 mph shifting to the south 7 to 9 mph
in the late evening and overnight, then
shifting to the southwest around 10 mph after 3
am.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 8 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph decreasing to up to 8 mph with
gusts to around 15 mph early in the evening,
then shifting to the south up to 5 mph in the
late evening and overnight shifting to the
southwest around 6 mph after 3 am.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 25 mph decreasing to 7 to 9 mph
early in the evening, then shifting to the
southwest 7 to 14 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........6 high.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5 3 4 7 4 3 5 7 5 9 10 14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............62 60 57 51 48 45 44 42 41 40 37 37
RH..............26 27 34 42 47 53 55 53 62 64 70 70
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW W S S S S SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..14 13 9 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10
20 FT wind gust.33 25 8 9 9 10 13 13 15 15
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW W S S S S SW SW SW SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.20 15 5 5 5 6 8 8 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...9.6 7.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W S S SW SW SW SW SW W
Transp wind spd.25 21 9 7 7 8 10 12 14 13 12 10
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
north 12 to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
north 7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest
around 13 mph late in the morning, then
shifting to the southwest around 12 mph late in
the morning shifting to the north around 13 mph
late in the morning shifting to the east
shifting to the southeast 13 to 14 mph early in
the afternoon shifting to the northeast 15 to
17 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25 39 43 49 59 64 72 77 83 86 88 90
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............37 36 39 43 49 52 55 56 58 58 58 57
RH..............70 72 73 67 56 52 47 45 44 44 45 47
20 FT wind dir..SW SW W NW NW NW NW W NW N N N
20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 8 9 9 9 13 10 12 14 12
20 FT wind gust.14 13 13 12 13 13 13 17 15 16 20 16
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW SW W NW NW NW NW W NW N N N
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 6 7 8 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 8 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 12 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.0
Transp wind dir.W W W NW SW N E SE E NE N N
Transp wind spd.10 12 14 13 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 17
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Sporer
Requested by...Lyndsey Lascheck
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412746.6/LBF
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lyndsey.lascheck@tnc.org