Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 232035
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
335 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Beautiful and dry conditions are present today and across the
region, all thanks to a cool airmass and ridging aloft.

Markers of the next weather system are already becoming present over
the southwest US where an upper jet streak is sending cloud cover
over southwest Texas. As the jet nears the southeast late tonight,
cloud cover will also move overhead. This upper jet will preclude a
shortwave moving into the central US early Sunday, before the next
frontal system spins up beneath it late Sunday.

This shortwave will shift high pressure eastward tonight with
surface winds shifting oncemore to the south/southeast. The pressure
gradient will tighten ahead of the frontal system bringing about
gusty conditions and increasing humidity Sunday.

The front approaches/crosses Louisiana Monday into Monday night.
Short term guidance is beginning to edge into this time frame giving
us some indication of what the severe threat may be with the system.
Some discrete thunderstorms may form ahead of the front and if they
can become deeply rooted and organized, all hazards may be possible.
Then, with the front, a congealed line of storms is likely to roll
across the region which may present a tornado and damaging wind
threat later in the evening/overnight. Return here for more updates
as details are better discerned through the next several model
suites.

Along with severe storms, since conditions have been so wet, there
will exist the threat of flooding in urban and low-lying areas with
heavier downpours/training rains.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Guidance is consistent in showing a cold front with a likely line of
storms exiting off to the east of the forecast area when the period
begins on Tuesday morning. High pressure from the Canadian Prairies
and the Northern Plains will be building in behind the front
bringing some breezy northwest winds on Tuesday with drying
conditions.

This high pressure system at the surface will bring a Dry
Continental air mass with it and slowly move across the forecast
area during the mid week period. This will bring slightly cooler
than seasonal conditions, especially at night with lows some 5+
degrees below normal.

By the end of the week, the high will be moving off to the east with
a southerly flow off the Gulf helping to bring warmer and more humid
conditions.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Mixed TAF categories this morning due to some light ground fog and
lower decks in some areas, then nearly clear skies in others. The
general trend today will be for the better, with CIGs scattering
out for several areas. Outside of that, the next 24+ hours will be
a wind forecast as the surface ridge moves off to the east over
this period. That will cause winds to gradually shift out of the
north, then NE, eventually becoming easterly by tomorrow morning.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Winds will shift east tonight then southeast on Sunday as ridging
moves east. Onshore flow will then strengthen Sunday into Monday as
low pressure deepens over the Plains and brings a front into the
region. A combination of elevated winds and seas will bring about
Advisory conditions late Sunday into Monday. The front will then be
accompanied by scattered to numerous storms Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  45  72  60  77 /   0   0   0  90
LCH  51  73  65  76 /   0   0   0  70
LFT  51  75  65  80 /   0   0   0  50
BPT  55  74  66  78 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ450-452-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87


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