215
FXUS65 KABQ 181139 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Today will be the warmest day of the year thus far in many locations
with Roswell likely seeing its first 100 degree day. The hot weather
continues through Monday, then temps drop to within a few degrees of
seasonal averages Tuesday and remain there through the end of the
week. Gusty southwest to west winds will create critical fire
weather conditions in western and central areas Monday, with
elevated conditions on Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Tilted ridge will work to straighten up, bringing its axis over NM
this afternoon. Pressure heights will rise another few decameters,
allowing sfc temperatures to also rise a few to several degrees.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase a skosh, just enough
to allow for adiabatic compression to have its effect on daytime
highs. As such, did trend temperatures on the higher side of
guidance. This added heat influence may push KROW over the edge of
the century mark today and definitely will tomorrow. An incoming
wave will bring just enough lift to make use of recycled moisture in
the northern mts, sparking virga showers in the afternoon and
evening. Above normal temperatures will prevail overnight with some
decent valley inversions setting up thanks to the drier air. Showers
in the northern high terrain will taper off after midnight.

Some of the warmest temperatures so far this season will take hold
on Sunday across portions of central and eastern NM. As previously
mentioned, KROW will surpass 100F and nearby KCVS will get within
spitting distance of the mark. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough
will bring a degree or two of cooling to the west. Very dry
conditions will be seen areawide, with widespread single digit RH
values sparking the need for a Chapstick Advisory. Breezy to locally
windy southwest winds across the central mts and eastward will reign
supreme in the afternoon with lighter magnitudes of west
winds expected across areas west of the central mts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Typical dry, breezy, and warm weather will be the story next week.
Monday looks to be both the hottest and windiest day of the week
thanks to a trough traversing the southern Rockies. The strongest
wind gusts (up to 45 mph) are likely across western NM, with weaker
winds in the east. A dry cold front crosses the state from west to
east Monday night, knocking down temps 5-10 degrees and ushering in
an even drier airmass. Another, even weaker, cold front will graze
northern NM Tuesday night. Its backdoor component will dry to push
down the eastern plains, but westerly flow will quickly take over in
the late morning, pushing the cooler and more moist airmass to the
east.

With the polar jet stream to the north, relatively weak zonal flow
will prevail across central and northern NM mid to late week, with
little sensible weather change from day to day. Temperatures will
hover within a few degrees of seasonal averages during the day and
the dry airmass will help temps drop 25-35 degrees each night. Long-
term guidance is in good agreement that a somewhat stationary
longwave trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest over the
weekend into the following week, likely prolonging the dry, breezy
weather for several more days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Light smoke from a wildfire near KONM may drift nly this morning
towards KABQ but little to no reduction in vis is expected. Gusty,
light intensity shwrs will be possible across the nrn mts this
aftn thru 19/06Z. Gusty swly winds will return in the aftn most
terminals, with speeds tapering off aft sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

A warming and drying trend takes hold this weekend through next week
with widespread low relative humidity and occasional gusty winds. A
ridge of high pressure will keep winds in check today but breezy to
locally windy west to southwest winds will prevail on Sunday. MinRH
drops another few percent on Sunday compared to Saturday, bringing
widespread low double digit and single digit values. Elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions will favor areas east of the
central mts, where thankfully a moderate amount of rainfall will
limit ERCs. Monday continues to be the prime day for concern as
widespread very low RH values persist amongst strengthening
southwest winds, bringing the potential for widespread critical fire
weather conditions. These conditions will most notably be favored in
western and central New Mexico, which received less rainfall and had
significant lightning activity in the last week. Breezy to locally
windy conditions will persist on Tuesday amongst continued low
minRH. Wednesday will offer a bit of a reprieve as winds slacken but
an incoming disturbance may bring stronger winds towards the end of
the week. Single digit RH will persist for greater than 6hrs several
days this week, often in areas of denser fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  41  76  37 /   5   5   0   0
Cuba............................  79  46  76  42 /   5   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  81  39  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  76  42  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  81  40  79  36 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  44  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  52  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  79  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  40  83  36 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  89  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  40  70  37 /   5  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  77  53  75  50 /   5  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  79  47  76  46 /   0   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  73  43  70  43 /  10  10   0   0
Red River.......................  69  38  67  37 /  10  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  72  33  69  32 /  10  10   0   0
Taos............................  78  42  76  38 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  75  43  74  42 /   5   5   0   0
Espanola........................  84  51  83  46 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  79  52  77  49 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  82  50  81  47 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  57  84  55 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  58  86  53 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  54  88  51 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  55  86  53 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  89  52  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  87  55  86  51 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  88  52  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  87  54  87  52 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  88  52  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  83  55  82  52 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  56  86  52 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  91  56  92  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  52  77  49 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  52  80  49 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  81  48  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  43  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  79  47  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  51  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  82  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  86  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  48  78  45 /  10  10   0   0
Raton...........................  81  47  81  43 /  10  20   0   0
Springer........................  82  48  82  43 /  10   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  47  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  86  52  87  54 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  82  52  82  48 /   5   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  90  55  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  87  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  92  55  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  94  58  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  95  57  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 100  61 101  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  58  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  87  55  89  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12