Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251725
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Winds will retreat from their high speeds yesterday, but
remain breezy to windy for many areas. Snow and blowing snow
resulting from this in northeastern NM and the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains will produce winter travel impacts this morning through
this evening. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 12 inches will
be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent
highlands with higher amounts atop the peaks. One more round of
scattered to numerous showers producing gusty winds, graupel and
light snow and valley rain sweeps across western, central and
northern NM Tuesday afternoon. Conditions finally clear out and warm
up Wednesday, with 70s and 80s for lower elevation areas Thursday
into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

At 200am, a strong backdoor cold front was surging south thru
northeast NM. Much colder temps, snow, and blowing snow will develop
in the wake of this front as far south as U.S. 60/84 this morning.
The latest HREF, NBM, and RRFS models are all in very good agreement
on this greater snow coverage but with the bulk of the accumulating
snow farther north and west toward I-25 from Raton Pass to Las Vegas
and U.S. 64/87 from Raton to Clayton. These areas were already added
to a Winter Wx Advisory earlier this morning. The backdoor cold
front will become stationary from near Taos southeastward over the
Sangre de Cristos Mts to near Clines Corners by late morning. Strong
northwest flow across the rest of northern and central NM today will
allow low level convergence to increase along with strong mid level
deformation in the base of the mid level trough axis. This will set
the stage for a persistent snowband to set up across the Sangre de
Cristo Mts with moderate to locally heavy snow thru this evening.
The Winter Storm Warnings are in good shape with significant impacts
highlighted in these areas on the earlier WSSI. Forecast models show
positive vorticity advection occurring over the Sangre de Cristo
Mts this evening which may allow snow to persist over west and
northwest- facing slopes thru the entire night. The Winter Storm
Warnings may need to be extended in time for parts of the area if
model trends continue. Elsewhere, snow showers will gradually
taper off across eastern NM this afternoon while increasing in
coverage over the rest of northern and western NM. This activity
will be moving quickly southeastward with brief visibility
reductions and only brief accums possible. Max temps today will be
impressively chilly for late March with highs roughly 15 to 30
degrees below normal. Min temps will be chilly as well tonight
with many areas below freezing along with wind chills in the teens
and 20s. Snow showers will taper off in tonight except perhaps
the Sangre de Cristo Mts as noted above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The long term period begins with the longwave troughing
pattern over the western CONUS progressing over the central CONUS
and one final perturbation embedded within that pattern crossing
northern and central NM. Abundant mid-level moisture associated with
this will produce scattered showers across much of western, central
and northern NM through the day Tuesday. Modest instability ahead of
the upper level perturbation will yield 100-200 J/kg of CAPE and LIs
of -2 to -4, resulting in a few robust showers capable of producing
graupel or small hail and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Went ahead
and bumped PoPs up above NBM guidance to better message the coverage
of these showers, but precipitation amounts will be mostly light,
just a few hundredths. Most areas will see stable temperatures or a
warmup of a couple of degrees over Monday`s readings, except
northeastern NM where highs will be 10F to 15F warmer than Monday.
Despite this, windy northwesterly winds coupled with cloud cover
will keep it feeling brisk most of the day.

Conditions finally clear out and warm up Wednesday with continued
windy northwesterly winds. Highs climb 5F to 10F most areas, back
into the 40s in the mountains, 50s in the mid-elevations, and 60s in
valley and lower elevation areas. The warming trend continues
Thursday and into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure slides
east over the region. Increasing southwesterly flow fills in behind
this ridge Friday with highs continuing to climb into the 70s and
80s for lower elevation areas. Temperatures plateau Saturday and
Sunday as WAA competes with falling pressure heights ahead of the
next upper level storm system approaching the Pacific west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Fairly active weather across the New Mexico airspace today with
upper level troughing over the region. There is also a cold front
over E NM that has stalled but behind it causing low ceilings with
a combination of snow/fog reducing visibility at times. These
IFR/MVFR conditions are not currently impacting any terminals but
we will be monitoring KLVS and KTCC accordingly. The rest of the
terminals are mostly VFR with gust winds. KSAF may get some
periods of snow this afternoon that could cause some temporary
reductions in visibility and ceilings. There is a decent model
signal for fog lowering visibility tonight over the northern
mountains from Taos over to Raton, Clayton and back to Las Vegas.
Tomorrow should also be a tricky forecast given steep temperature
lapse rates which will support convective showers with mixed
precip and gusty winds.

39

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A break in the critical fire weather will occur thru Tuesday as
unsettled weather continues over the region with valley rain
showers, mountain snow, and even some thunderstorms. Significant
snowfall accumulations are likely for the Sangre de Cristo Mts thru
tonight. Otherwise, north to northwest winds will still be breezy
areawide thru Tuesday but with much higher humidity and below normal
temps. A transition day toward more tranquil weather is expected on
Wednesday. A fire growing pattern may return for eastern NM Thursday
thru Sunday as stronger southwest winds, much warmer temps, and
subcritical humidity occur each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  28  49  27 /  10   5  40  10
Dulce...........................  45  16  44  16 /  60  30  50  20
Cuba............................  41  23  41  22 /  40  10  50  20
Gallup..........................  44  23  46  22 /  20  10  50  30
El Morro........................  38  23  41  23 /  30  20  60  30
Grants..........................  44  23  45  23 /  20   5  40  20
Quemado.........................  42  24  42  24 /  20  30  70  20
Magdalena.......................  46  29  46  29 /  10  10  50  30
Datil...........................  41  25  42  26 /  10  20  50  20
Reserve.........................  47  22  45  22 /  40  30  70  20
Glenwood........................  50  33  47  30 /  50  50  70  10
Chama...........................  38  13  38  13 /  90  50  60  30
Los Alamos......................  40  26  42  25 /  70  20  40  20
Pecos...........................  39  22  43  23 /  90  40  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  35  22  36  21 /  90  70  40  20
Red River.......................  32  14  32  12 / 100  90  60  30
Angel Fire......................  30   8  33  13 / 100  80  60  30
Taos............................  39  20  42  19 /  90  60  30  20
Mora............................  34  18  41  20 /  90  70  40  20
Espanola........................  46  27  49  26 /  70  30  30  20
Santa Fe........................  40  25  43  24 /  80  30  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  45  26  48  25 /  60  20  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  31  50  31 /  30  10  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  33  52  31 /  20  10  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  31  55  31 /  20  10  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  32  52  31 /  20  10  40  20
Belen...........................  54  31  55  32 /  10  10  30  20
Bernalillo......................  52  32  53  31 /  30  10  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  53  31  55  30 /  20  10  40  20
Corrales........................  53  32  53  31 /  30  10  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  54  31  55  31 /  20  10  40  20
Placitas........................  47  30  48  30 /  40  10  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  52  32  52  31 /  30  10  40  20
Socorro.........................  57  35  56  35 /   5  10  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  26  44  28 /  40  20  40  20
Tijeras.........................  45  29  46  28 /  40  20  40  20
Edgewood........................  45  27  47  27 /  40  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  25  49  26 /  40  10  30  20
Clines Corners..................  40  23  44  25 /  60  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  45  27  47  26 /  30  20  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  46  27  47  28 /  20  20  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  51  32  50  31 /  10  20  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  43  28  43  28 /  20  30  40  20
Capulin.........................  26  14  38  20 /  80  20  20  20
Raton...........................  32  17  44  21 /  70  40  30  20
Springer........................  34  20  47  22 /  70  50  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  32  20  44  22 /  80  50  20  20
Clayton.........................  32  21  45  27 /  80  10  10  20
Roy.............................  33  22  45  25 /  80  30  10  20
Conchas.........................  39  27  55  29 /  80  30  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  39  25  55  31 /  80  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  37  25  55  29 /  80  30  10  20
Clovis..........................  42  26  57  31 /  70  20  30  30
Portales........................  44  25  59  31 /  60  10  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  44  25  58  33 /  90  10  10  20
Roswell.........................  58  34  62  38 /  20  10   5  20
Picacho.........................  55  32  55  34 /  10  10   5  20
Elk.............................  52  30  51  31 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for NMZ230.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-
228-229.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ213>216-
227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39


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