699
FXUS65 KABQ 070847
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Strong winds and critically dry conditions will persist today, with
the strongest winds favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, as
well as the northeast and central highlands. Winds slacken
somewhat on Wednesday but will remain widespread breezy to windy.
An influx of modest moisture will allow isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to enter the forecast Thursday through the early
next week, with the best coverage expected across northern New
Mexico. Strong east canyon winds will be possible in the
Albuquerque metro Thursday night through Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper level low will slowly lift into the Dakotas and eastern MT
today while the polar jet screams just north of the NM-CO border.
This will keep strong winds aloft over our state, particularly the
northern half where 700 mb winds are progged to broadly stay in the
35 to 45 kt range with a corridor of stronger 45 to 55 kts near and
just east of the Sangre de Cristos where a standing mountain wave
signature is expected to develop. This will be coupled with a nearly
990 mb surface low near the OK panhandle and deep mixing, so todays
surface winds should be quite windy, taking on more of a
southwesterly component to the lee of the mountains while staying
more due westerly elsewhere. Will upgrade most of the High Wind
Watch to a Warning for the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent highlands
with lots of Wind Advisories surrounding. The west southwest
direction will offer a hint of warm air advection, and high
temperatures should warm several degrees above yesterdays readings.
Winds aloft will be stubborn to decrease tonight as a shortwave
trough drops over the Great Basin and towards the Four Corners, but
the surface gradient should relax with boundary layer decoupling
that will allow lower elevation areas to observe lighter overnight
winds.

Into Wednesday, the aforementioned Four Corners shortwave will race
across northern NM through the day, dragging a veering wind
direction (turning more west northwesterly) and lower heights that
will signify weak cold air advection. Wind speeds aloft would remain
strong, but not as high as today, as the surface low will not be
quite as deep and vertical mixing not as deep. Still, a Wind
Advisory might be warranted for a couple of zones around the central
to northeast highlands (Clines Corners to Las Vegas). Temperatures
on Wednesday would drop several degrees below normal in northwestern
zones while southeastern ones hang on near to slightly above
average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The upper low that brought prolonged winds of misfortune finally
swings into the Midwest Wednesday night. As it does, a secondary
piece of energy trailing behind over the Great Basin works to
develop its own low center. Meanwhile at the sfc, the departing low
kicks off a gusty backdoor front down the Great Plains, which surges
southward and westward across the eastern plains overnight. This
will result in a breezy east canyon wind across the central RGV
through Thursday morning. Upslope flow from the front amongst
modest moisture will give rise to isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the northern mts in the afternoon. In the
meantime, the Great Basin low finds its center while it meanders
around southern NV. This synoptic pattern will lend favorably to a
potential high wind event Thursday night into Friday morning
across the middle RGV as the east winds get a secondary push
through the canyon gaps. Guidance has been relatively consistent
at suggesting sustained speeds in excess of 35 kts, of which the
pattern supports. Should the trend continue, wind highlights will
be probable in future updates. The blustery canyon winds would
diminish through the morning hours, turning southeast by early
afternoon. Continued upslope flow out east will help to
invigorate more afternoon convection across the northern and
central mts. The casual Great Basin low retrogrades towards CA on
Friday night, allowing a shortwave ridge to build in front of it
across NM. It`s at this point that guidance has a few departures
as to the amount of moisture and forcing available for convection
on Saturday. For now, kept PoPs mostly in line with the NBM. The
low is progged to wander eastward, though its rate and path is
still up for debate amongst the GFS and ECMWF. Either way,
unsettled weather will continue to be on the docket for at least
some locales as long as the system remains in our orbit -- which
at this juncture, sees us through the end of the long term
forecast. Thankfully, lackluster shear and energy will keep storms
in check, allowing them to be more garden-variety in nature,
though a few ambitious cells could become strong. Temperatures
during the extended forecast will be below normal for most
locales, save for a trend to near and above normal on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail through the night
and into Tuesday morning. Strong winds aloft will persist
overnight, meaning some locations will experience low level wind
shear in the transition zone a couple to a few thousand feet above
ground. A few high level clouds may develop into the afternoon,
but the bigger concern will be another round of strong to severe
surface winds developing, particularly over the Sangre de Cristo
mountains and surrounding highlands where gusts may reach
50-55kt. Mountain wave activity will also be likely near and east
(downwind) of this area. Many other areas within the northern half
of New Mexico will also observe high gusts of 35 to 45 kt, and
areas of blowing dust could reduce visibility in some areas. Winds
will relax after sunset Tuesday, but will still be brisk to
breezy over higher elevation areas through Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

..WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY..

A dangerous fire weather pattern will unfold today as strong to
severe winds (widespread gusts of 40 to 65 mph) develop amid very
dry, warmer and unstable conditions. Many areas in central to
eastern NM will observe several hours of humidity at less than 10
percent, and the Haines instability index is peaking at 5 with
localized spots at a max value of 6 this afternoon, signifying how
dire conditions could be today. The Red Flag Warning will remain in
effect through 9 PM when surface winds should be decreasing enough
for critical conditions to abate. There are also concerns for
Wednesday, however the critical threat is not as blatant as today.
Temperatures will be cooling on Wednesday, stability indices
lowering (improving), and winds will not be nearly as strong. Still,
gusts should commonly reach 30 to 40 mph in much of central to
eastern NM with locally higher gusts to 50 mph in the central to
northeast highlands. Have opted to keep the Fire Weather Watch
intact with the area of most concern being concentrated in San
Miguel, Torrance and Guadalupe counties. Fortunately, the arrival of
a backdoor front will act to disrupt the windy pattern on Thursday.
While there will be some gusts associated with the front, they will
generally be of shorter duration with the accompanying cooler and
more moist air acting to boost humidity, especially going into
Friday and the weekend when a second push of cool, moist air
arrives. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will be breaking
out, initially favoring the north central zones, but expanding to
many others by the weekend. Lightning strikes could cause some new
ignitions Thursday and Friday, but temperatures hovering below
normal and an absence of long duration strong winds should slow
growth through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  35  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  64  27  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  31  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  71  32  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  67  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  71  33  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  71  35  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  75  42  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  72  37  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  75  35  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  59  24  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  67  39  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  69  37  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  31  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  56  26  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  58  26  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  66  28  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  66  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  75  38  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  71  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  75  36  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  45  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  82  42  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  78  42  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  80  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  78  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  80  40  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  75  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  77  44  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  85  48  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  40  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  72  41  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  72  39  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  39  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  70  37  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  74  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  74  44  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  47  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  69  33  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  73  33  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  74  36  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  78  40  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  75  41  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  83  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  46  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  49  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  85  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  50  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  90  54  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  51  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  51  77  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ201>205-210>212-216>218-226-228-231>234-240.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-122>126.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ213>215-223-227-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...52