Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 290009 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
609 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Another breezy day has been observed for much of northern and
central New Mexico with warmer and more seasonable temperatures.
Dry, warmer and breezy to windy conditions are forecast for Friday
and Saturday. In addition to the dry conditions, areas of low
humidity will also develop over portions of central and much of
eastern New Mexico, where gusty conditions will combine to create
critical fire weather and the potential for rapid fire spread on
Friday and Saturday. A Pacific storm system will move inland,
impacting the American Southwest on Sunday with increasing winds
that will occasionally gust to 40 to 55 mph by the afternoon. The
strongest winds will develop over central and eastern New Mexico,
and this will lead to areas of blowing dust and additional
critical fire weather. Meanwhile in far western New Mexico,
showers and a few thunderstorms will develop on Sunday, and these
areas of rain and snow will slowly try to expand into central
areas of New Mexico by Monday and Tuesday before drier conditions
arrive.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Weak upper level ridging will translate eastward this evening with
west to southwesterly flow prevailing over NM. Breezy to locally
windy conditions today will taper off around sunset, though winds
will stay elevated across the mountain peaks overnight. Mountain
wave activity is possible toward Friday morning to the lee of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountain peaks. Winds will increase rapidly Friday
morning with a 997-999mb surface low developing during the afternoon
hours near the OK/CO/NM border. This combined with strong mixing
will yield a windy afternoon across much of the area, though
especially so across eastern NM. Gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be
common though locally higher gusts near 50 mph will be possible
around KLVS. Expect temperatures to rise a few degrees from today`s
readings across eastern NM due to strong downsloping during the
afternoon. Warm temperatures are also expected in the Rio Grande
Valley. In fact, Albuquerque looks to finally reach 70 degrees!
Winds will taper off Friday evening with sunset and the loss of
daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Conditions on Saturday will not alter much from those of Friday as
the Pacific low drops just offshore of central CA. The
differences will mainly hinge on a slight backing of the upper
flow turning more southwesterly, along with a broadening of the
redeveloping lee-side surface trough as it plants itself along
the front range of CO and northeast NM. Wind speeds will not alter
much, perhaps just a subtle increase in western high terrain
zones with gusts of 30 to 45 mph being common and locally as high
as 50 mph near and downwind (northeast) of higher terrain locales.

Into Sunday, the low will drop just offshore of southern CA with
southwesterly flow aloft increasing more over NM. There are some
model discrepancies with the GFS being strongest, advertising
widespread 700 mb flow of 40-50 kt over the CWA with other members
generally staying in a 35-45 kt range. A deep lee-side surface
trough should induce a strong surface gradient across the forecast
area as well with continued deep vertical boundary layer mixing
amid warmer than normal temperatures. While the best upper forcing
would still be in eastern AZ, portions of far western NM will
observe sufficient lift for shower and thunderstorm development
with high afternoon snow levels generally at or above 8,000 feet.

The initial vort lobe associated with the Pacific low will swing
over central NM late Sunday night into Monday morning while a
northern stream low overtakes the central Rockies and a trailing
piece of energy pushes toward the upper Baja peninsula. This will
ultimately spread showers and thunderstorms eastward into more of
NM Sunday night and Monday with a backdoor front providing some
moisture and surface convergence into far northeastern zones late
Monday. With 700 mb temperatures hovering between -2 and -5 C,
snow levels would drop to 6000 to 7000 feet Monday morning, rising
back to near 8,000 feet or so in the afternoon. Surface
temperatures would start dropping Sunday, mainly in western zones,
but all of the CWA should plunge below average by Monday.

The primary trough will shove east of NM into Tuesday with lagging
positive vorticity advection still possible as our flow quickly
gains a meridional component. Consensus for QPF looks lower than
24 hours ago, but isolated to scattered convective showers and a
few storms still seem plausible through late Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures would stay 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Some of Tuesday`s vort lobes could drop south of the forecast area
into Wednesday and potentially cut off into a low, but this
feature appears to keep any associated impacts away from us. This
will leave much lighter flow aloft that should bring rising
heights and warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Winds aloft will strengthen tonight keeping winds gusty in the
mountains including KAXX and KSRR. Low level wind shear is
expected tonight into early Friday morning over, and along the
east slopes of, the western mountains and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. A surface trough will then strengthen in the lee of the
southern Rockies on Friday, as high temperatures climb near to
several degrees above 1991-2020 averages, enabling gusty winds to
develop in many places by mid morning. By afternoon wind gusts in
the 30-40 KT range will be common across the forecast area, except
up to 45 KT along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, and potentially reaching 35 KT in the Albuquerque area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

Several days of critical fire weather conditions are on tap, mainly
for eastern New Mexico. Gusty winds today will increase on Friday
areawide with gusts between 30 and 40 mph common, though higher
gusts are possible across portions of northeast NM. These winds
combined with sub-15% RH across eastern NM will yield critical fire
weather conditions. Haines indices have also been trending higher
during the afternoon hours Friday with values of 4 and 5 now
common. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning across all of eastern NM. Though some greenup has
likely occurred, LIS soil moisture values indicate very dry
conditions out there despite recent precipitation. On Saturday,
conditions will be quite similar, though winds will be out of the
southwest rather than the west. Another round of critical fire
weather conditions are likely across eastern NM, though spotty
critical conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande
Valley. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for eastern NM
Saturday afternoon through early evening. The next storm system
will approach NM on Sunday. The strongest winds of the week are
expected Sunday afternoon from the southwest. Moisture/RH values
will be increasing from west to east, though critical fire weather
conditions will remain likely across much of eastern NM, and
potentially the Rio Grande Valley as well. Precipitation will
spread from west to east from late Sunday afternoon through
Monday, with central and western NM benefiting the most. Snow is
likely above 6000-6500 feet. Showers will linger on Tuesday before
drier conditions resume on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  35  65  37  67 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  30  59  30  62 /   5   5   0   5
Cuba............................  31  61  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  64  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  29  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  29  64  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  31  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  40  66  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  34  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  30  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  41  69  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  26  54  28  55 /   5   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  37  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  34  61  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  34  52  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  26  49  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  25  47  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  28  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  34  58  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  34  68  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  35  62  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  32  66  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  69  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  72  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  40  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  40  75  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  39  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  38  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  39  71  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  39  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  40  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  40  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  43  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  62  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  40  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  67  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  36  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  40  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  67  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  71  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  63  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  30  65  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  38  73  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  76  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  74  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  41  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  43  79  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  81  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  43  78  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  43  84  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  74  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  72  44  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ104-123-125-
126.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44


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