694
FXAK69 PAFG 032126
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 PM AKDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

The main upper pattern has general agreement through much of the
extended period. There are differences in the minor details, but
overall confidence in the forecast is high through the next
several days. An upper low currently in the Bering Sea will shift
southeast into the Gulf of Alaska through Monday, and will quickly
be followed by a secondary upper low for mid to late week. Several
embedded shortwaves will eject northward across the Interior
bringing increased potential for shower with each wave. Upper
troughing will also move across the North Slope early in the
forecast period, becoming the secondary upper low over the Bering
Sea for late in the period. There will be elevated fire weather
concerns for the area near Delta Junction on Saturday due to gusty
winds and low humidity values. Winter Weather conditions due to
snow and blowing snow will also impact portions of the north slope
over the weekend. Strong winds are also forecast across the Bering
Strait to St. Lawrence Island tonight into Monday morning. We will
continue to monitor river conditions through the weekend. Some
minor flooding due to snowmelt will continue along the Tanana
River near Fairbanks through early the mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Warm conditions look to return to Interior Alaska for Saturday
and Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with perhaps
few lower 60s. A cold front will arrive for early in the work
week, with temperatures falling off about 10 degrees. However,
temperatures will rebound starting Wednesday, with highs reaching
back into 50s and possibly lower 60s. Overnight lows look to
remain at or above freezing through the extended period. This will
aid in snowmelt across the Interior with localized flooding
possible on area streams and creeks. Generally scattered showers
are expected on Saturday as an upper wave lifts north across
central Alaska. A brief break is forecast Sunday ahead of the next
upper wave. More scattered showers are expected Monday into
Tuesday before drier conditions spread across the Interior for mid
week. Shower activity looks to return by late in the forecast
period, with perhaps a couple of thunderstorms by Friday across
the far southeast zones. Fire weather conditions are forecast for
Saturday due to low humidity values and gusty winds for areas near
Delta Junction and Fort Greeley. Chinook winds off the Alaska
Range will gust overnight into Saturday morning in the 30 to 50
mph range. Winds should dissipate over this region by tomorrow
night. As mentioned above, temperatures look to remain at or above
freezing for the next several days, which will aid snowmelt and
lead to high stream flows.

Upper energy will move across the North Slope through much of the
extended period. Periods of snow and blowing snow will continue
through the extended period. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect for the central Brooks Range to the Beaufort coast where 2
to 4 inches of snow and gusty winds are expected tonight through
Sunday afternoon. This snow is in response to an upper trough
skirting the Beaufort coast. This upper wave will shift west
across the North Slope through Monday, with light snow moving west
with it. Continued upper level energy will shift west across the
North Slope through the week, each bringing a period of light
snowfall to the region. Overall, temperatures will remain cold
with single digits to lower teens through the weekend, then
moderating through the week into the 20s along the coast, to 30s
inland along the Brooks Range.

An upper low currently over the Bering Sea will continue to lift
moisture northward across the Yukon Delta tonight into Saturday.
Periods of rain and snow are expected through the weekend as the
upper low track southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. A brief break
in precipitation is forecast for early in the work week, before
the secondary system drops south out of the Bering Strait and into
the Bering Sea. Showers are expected to develop across the
Lisburne Peninsula on Tuesday, and track southward into the Seward
Peninsula for mid week. Temperatures look to remain the 30s and
40s, and any snow through the extended period should remain
confined to the coast. As for winds, brisk northeast winds will
spread across the Bering Strait and across St. Lawrence Island
tonight through Monday morning. It has been warm along the Bering
Strait coast, and snowpack is likely melted and refrozen,
therefore, blowing snow will likely not be an issue. That being
said, a few areas of blowing snow could be possible with localized
reduced visibility.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are forecast for Saturday for portions of the
Tanana Valley, especially for areas near Delta Junction and Fort
Greeley. Chinook winds are expected overnight into Saturday
afternoon, and gap wind prone areas could see gusts 30 to 50 mph.
Humidity values are expected to fall near 20 percent on Saturday.
Winds look to subside by late Saturday afternoon across the Alaska
Range. Rain and snow showers will be possible from early the mid
week with slightly cooler temperatures and higher humidity values.
A small threat for thunderstorms arrives for late in the extended
forecast period for southeast zones near the ALCAN border, but
confidence in occurrence is low at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Yukon River near Eagle continues to have high water and a
minor ice jam in place with ice in place down river from Eagle. A
SPS remains in place for this area. The Tanana River is partially
ice free and minor flooding due to snowmelt is expected. A Flood
Watch is in effect from Salcha to Fairbanks. Minor flooding has
been reported in the Rosie Creek subdivision.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808-810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
     Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-813-814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-850-853-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859-861.
&&

$$