987
FXUS61 KAKQ 290022
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
822 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast early
this week with an upper ridge building over the area. Well above
normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A
weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Precipitation
chances increase late Friday and especially this weekend as
another cold front approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

-Mild and dry weather tonight.

A strong upper level ridge is in place from Florida all the way
north to the eastern Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure
anchored off the SE US coast. Earlier SCT cumulus has
dissipated, with just a few high clouds across the region.
Temperatures remain warm this evening, with readings as of 8 PM
generally ranging through the 70s (60s at the coast on the
eastern shore). Dew pts are comfortable in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Dry and mild overnight, with a SSW wind averaging
around 5 mph inland to around 10 mph at the coast in SE VA and
NE NC. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s (coolest
across rural areas in south central/interior SE VA).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

-Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest chances during the
afternoon and evening.

-Despite the storm chances, the threat for severe weather is low on
both Tuesday and Wednesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above
normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days
of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day (especially on
Monday) with NBM 50th percentile and MAV/MET/ECS forecasting
widespread 88-90F highs. While these summer-like temps will
certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at
SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at
most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record
highs either/both days (see climate section below for more
information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper
50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon, so heat indices
will be similar to (or slightly below) the actual air temperatures.

A weak southern stream shortwave tracks over the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak cold front is
progged to slowly cross part of the area Tuesday night but may
linger over central/srn portions of the area on Wednesday (although
this is somewhat uncertain as the guidance is split with respect to
how far south the cold front makes it). Nevertheless, isolated to
widely scattered tstms will develop across the mountains of VA
Tuesday aftn and potentially move into the Piedmont by mid to late
evening before gradually weakening as they try to push eastward
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. If convection can make
it to the Piedmont by evening, isolated gusts to 45 mph are possible
in the strongest storms. Will keep PoPs no higher than 30% NW with
15-20% PoPs farther SE (and no chance of tstms in SE VA/NE NC
through Tue night). With the front potentially lingering across the
area on Wed (in addition to the shortwave tracking near or just
south of us), will keep 30-40% PoPs for scattered showers/tstms
(highest S of I-64). Otherwise, it will be a bit cooler (especially
near the coast) with the flow becoming onshore behind the front as
weak high pressure begins to settle across New England. Forecast
highs Wed are in the lower-mid 80s inland with mid-upper 70s near
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible Friday.

-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from late this week with
above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off
the New England coast Wed night into Thu, with onshore flow expected
across the area. Any convection should quickly dissipate Wednesday
evening, with mainly dry wx expected from Wed night through most of
Fri. Temps on Thu are expected to be slightly cooler than they will
be on Wed, with the coolest temps along the coast with the continued
onshore flow. Forecast highs Thu are in the lower 80s inland with
upper 60s-70s near the bay/Atlantic coast. Thu will likely remain
dry.

High pressure moves farther offshore from Friday through the weekend
while the ridge aloft slowly breaks down. Low pressure tracking well
to our NW will drag a cold front toward the area this weekend, which
will result in increased chances for showers/tstms. A prefrontal
trough may spark some showers/storms Fri aftn/evening with 15-30%
PoPs. At this time, it looks like the best chance of storms is on
Saturday with lingering precip chances on Sunday as the front may
stall near/over the area. Temps remain above normal through the
weekend (but not as warm as they will be tomorrow/Tue).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/29 TAF period with mainly clear
skies outside of high clouds overnight, and a FEW fair weather
cumulus Monday aftn. SW winds will generally average 5-10 kt
tonight (slightly higher near the coast), with a few 15-20 kt
gusts expected once again all areas on Monday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Monday night through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a
slight chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher
(~30%) chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on
Wednesday at all of the terminals. Very brief flight
restrictions are likely in any tstm. Dry Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period.

Late this aftn, high pressure was centered off the coastal
Carolinas. Winds were SSW 5-15 kt over the waters. Seas were
generally 3-4 ft, and waves in the bay were 1 to 2 ft. Winds
will become SW everywhere tonight at 5-15 kt. High pressure
will become centered off the SE coast for tonight through Tue.
Winds will average 5-15 kt through the period and will primarily
be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2-4 ft and waves
1-2 ft. A cold front moves across the waters late Tue night
into Wed, with winds shifting to the W and then NNW (but still
remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then expected later Wed
into Thu night. Seas will increase slightly late Tue into Tue
night, due to a little stronger S winds. So, we will have to
watch the potential for seas to 5 ft (esply out 20 nm) during
this timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AJB/TMG
CLIMATE...