Text Products for FWS Issued by AKQ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 181004
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove - Units 37/39/41...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
604 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and warm conditions are expected today with minimum RH values
falling to between 30-35% this afternoon. Winds will be northwest
at 5-10 mph. RH values will be higher on Friday. A cold front
crosses the area late Friday into Saturday, with scattered showers
possible Friday afternoon and evening. Mainly dry Saturday, with
rain chances and cool temperatures Sunday as low pressure tracks
along the stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph increasing to 9 to 13
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (76700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................28 early in the morning increasing to 95 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   5   4   7   10  13  13  13  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............70  73  76  79  80  81  81  82  83
RH..............63  55  50  44  41  38  37  34  32
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.11  12  12  12  12  12  12  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 3.1 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.0
Transp wind dir.W   NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  9   9   10  13  13
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............28  41  52  57  61  68  78  89  95
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  29  38  43  47  54  62  72  77
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 7 to 14
                    mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (41900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................61 early in the evening decreasing to 3 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  7   4   5   6   6   22  39  55  57  60  63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............81  78  72  69  65  62  60  57  55  54  54  53
RH..............35  42  53  59  68  75  78  83  86  90  90  89
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.8   8   6   6   8   8   8   8   8   8   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.NW  N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
Transp wind spd.10  8   7   8   12  14  13  12  9   9   9   9
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
ADI.............61  4   3   4   5   6   6   5   6   6   6   6
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..42  11  4   4   6   7   7   7   6   6   6   7
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (16800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 to 25.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........66     73     74     70     61     58
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      20     20
Temp............52     52     58     65     72     72
RH..............93     89     75     60     49     51
20 ft wind......E 4    E 5    E 5    E 5    SE 5   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.6      8      8      8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1200   1800   2400   2900   2800
Transport wind..NE 10  E 10   E 8    E 6    E 6    SE 7
LVORI...........6      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.............7      16     19     17     22     23
Haines index....4      4      4      3      2      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      11     13     13     15     16
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...IYER
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411279.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
