440
FXUS61 KALY 040206
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through
tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast
through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from
the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for
showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will
become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across
the area with cool temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1005 PM EDT, an upper level ridge axis will be
directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England
coast will bring largely dry weather across the region with just
some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and the 00z
KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low- levels, so low
cloud development later tonight looks fairly isolated. While
most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few
sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight.
Temperatures have fallen into the 50s to lower 60s in most areas
and remain on track to dip into the 40s to around 50 by
daybreak.

Previous Discussion:
Just some areas of thin high clouds across NY State into western
New England. Low level ridging in eastern New England slowly
building offshore as upper ridging over our region providing
some larger scale subsidence. Light southeast to south low level
flow could support development of some low clouds tonight,
especially in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern
Berkshires, but low levels have been drying and inversions are
being mixed out, so low clouds may be more sparse than last
night. Clouds associated with the slowly approaching frontal
system in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will stay mainly to the
west overnight.

Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some
radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to
around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and
associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the
day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading
edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very
late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of
high clouds through the day with steady light south to
southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70.

Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through
the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will
see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in
the Capital Region and points north and east may be after
daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire
region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of
thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday.

Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early
morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the
exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in
the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing
clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near
80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow
with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of
Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the
northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and
associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will
result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night
through Friday.

There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of
spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded
smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low
level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper
pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating
chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for
severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the
relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing.

Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs
Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with
near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern
Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are in place at the TAF sites
and look to remain VFR through the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure off the New England coast and upper-level energy to our
west will bring occasional clouds across the TAF sites, but cigs
should remain at or above 5 kft much of the period. Low cloud
development looks less likely tonight but will monitor trends.

Wind will be southeasterly for much of the TAF period at 4-8 kt
tonight and around 10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun