Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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782 FXUS64 KAMA 042316 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 616 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Low clouds are trying to break up across much of the area, but not expecting much of a warmup across the area. In fact, even the NBM 10th percentile highs are too warm across portions of the area that are currently cloudy. Highs today may not reach 60 degrees for Amarillo and surrounding areas, but highs in the 60s can be expected in the northwest and southeast where clouds are not as widespread. Rain and embedded thunderstorms may work up to the Panhandles later today, but thinking that they may merely clip southern or southeasterly TX Panhandle this evening, and maybe some showers may grace the western Panhandles. NBM seems to be running quite hot with the PoPs again, with 50-80% across much of the area tonight. Have significant doubts about that. As such, have dropped PoPs to 15-25% at most for the central and northern Panhandles, while generally leaving PoPs for the periphery of the Panhandles. Rain chances exit the Panhandles Sunday morning. Sunday, a large upper-level trough moves toward the Panhandles, skies clear, 850mb temperatures warm, and surface winds turn southerly and breezy. All of these factors point toward highs returning to the 70s to near-80. Winds strengthen overnight to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph as a surface low develops and rapidly strengthens in eastern Colorado. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A mostly dry forecast throughout the majority of the forecast period. The only chances for some rain and or thunderstorms will be on Monday and potentially on Friday. Starting on Monday, latest 04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows an occluded stacked low pressure system over the norther High Plains. Further south across the Panhandles, a sfc dryline will develop and with gusty WSW sfc winds, the dryline should quickly move to the east throughout the day. If any adjustments to the track of the main low and/or winds behind the dryline become weaker, the dryline by Monday afternoon may linger more in the eastern Panhandles. As of right now the far eastern combined Panhandles will have the best chance to stay along or east of the dryline by MOnday afternoon. Ingredients will be there for all hazards for severe thunderstorms potential if storms do develop. WInds behind the dryline based off the latest probs have decreased in model runs over the past few hours. We will still be monitoring the potential for some wind headlines and fire weather conditions, but domain coverage could be more limited compared to previous model runs. Highs on Monday will range from upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east. Zonal flow and dry conditions should resume through the middle of the week for all of the Panhandles. A cold front should drop high temperatures from above average of Tuesday and Wednesday, back to near average by Thursday. A perturbation in H500 WNW flow may bring a slight chance (~ 20%) to the western Panhandles by the end of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will remain cool with temperatures below average for early May. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 An approaching weather system is pushing more moisture across the panhandles. This is already causing MVFR ceilings at KAMA which will spread to KDHT and KGUY this evening. Conditions can deteriorate to IFR during the late evening to overnight hours. IFR conditions have a higher chance of occurring in the southern panhandles and a lesser chance in the northern panhandles. With the additional moisture rain showers and even isolated embedded thunderstorms may occur this evening to early overnight. This would also be more likely in the S panhandle. Currently the threat of thunderstorms is not high enough to carry in any of the TAFs. There is even a very low chance that a strong to severe thunderstorm can occur with hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Late Sunday morning through the evening should see enough moisture leave the panhandles that the threat of showers and thunderstorms become very low. Easterly winds this evening will slowly shift to become southerly by the afternoon hours of Sunday. Then Sunday afternoon will see these winds become gusty persisting through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 52 73 58 83 / 30 10 10 10 Beaver OK 48 75 56 85 / 20 20 10 20 Boise City OK 45 75 55 78 / 10 10 10 0 Borger TX 53 78 60 87 / 20 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 52 80 59 84 / 20 10 10 0 Canyon TX 52 75 58 83 / 40 10 10 0 Clarendon TX 52 71 58 85 / 60 10 20 10 Dalhart TX 47 76 54 80 / 20 10 10 0 Guymon OK 46 75 56 82 / 20 10 10 10 Hereford TX 52 78 58 83 / 50 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 51 74 58 86 / 40 20 20 20 Pampa TX 52 73 58 83 / 20 10 10 10 Shamrock TX 52 73 58 87 / 60 20 20 20 Wellington TX 54 73 58 87 / 80 20 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...98